Gold Market Commentary: Can Gold Bear The Bond Steepener?

Bull and Bear Symbol with Stock Market Concept.

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August in review

  • Gold declined marginally by 1% in August, in the face of higher yields and a stronger dollar
  • Sentiment remained weak for most of the month as ETFs continued to lose AUM while COMEX managed

Sources: Bloomberg, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

*Data to 31 August 2023. Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) is a multiple regression model of monthly gold price returns, which we group into four key thematic driver categories of gold’s performance: economic expansion, risk & uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum. These themes capture motives behind gold demand; most pertinently, investment demand, which is considered the marginal driver of gold price returns in the short run. ‘Unexplained’ represents the percentage change in the gold price that is not explained by factors currently included in the model. Results shown here are based on analysis covering an estimation period from February 2007 to August 2023.

USD (oz) EUR (oz) JPY (g) GBP (oz) CAD (oz) CHF (oz) INR (10g) RMB (g) TRY (oz) AUD (oz)
31 Aug 2023 Price 1,942 1,792 9,086 1,534 2,631 1,715 51,696 453 51,826 3,002
August return -1.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% -0.8% 0.2% -2.3% 2.4%
Y-T-D Return 7.1% 5.8% 18.8% 2.2% 7.0% 2.3% 7.2% 12.7% 52.7% 12.8%

*Data to 31 August 2023. Based on the LBMA Gold Price PM in USD, expressed in local currencies. Source: Bloomberg, ICE Benchmark Administration, World Gold Council

Sources: Bloomberg, World Gold Council; Disclaimer

*Data from 3 July 2023 to 31 August 2023. US 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields and the 10-year less 2-year spread.

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