Qorvo: Rating Downgrade Due To Emerging Competition (NASDAQ:QRVO)


Qorvo headquarters in Silicon Valley

Sundry Photography

In our previous analysis of Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) stock, we believed the company’s significant exposure to its Asian customers (55% of revenue) and supported its growth prospects, especially in the mid-market 5G smartphones with a 77% market share. We believed the company’s commitment to 5G positioned it

Qorvo Revenue Breakdown by Segments ($ mln)

2022

Q3 YTD 2022

Q3 YTD 2023

Growth %

ACG Revenue

2,727

2,236

1,680

-25%

HPA Revenue

805

650

423

-35%

CSG Revenue

571

475

285

-40%

Total

4,103

3,360

2,387

-29%

Semiconductor Industry ($ mln)

2022

2023F

Growth %

Logic

176,578

174,944

-0.9%

Memory

129,767

89,601

-31.0%

DAO

267,739

255,581

-4.5%

Total

574,084

520,126

-9.4%

RF Market Growth Projections

2021

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

ASP Increase %

8.4%

5.6%

3.4%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

Unit Shipment Increase %

4.6%

-11.1%

-3.6%

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

Total Growth

13.4%

-6.1%

-0.4%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

RF Market Growth Projections

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

RF Market (Smartphone)

19.2

19.1

20.0

20.9

21.9

22.9

Growth %

-0.4%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

4.6%

RF Market (Others)

12.4

16.4

19.9

23.9

28.5

33.7

Growth %

31.9%

21.3%

20.1%

19.1%

18.3%

RF Market (Total)

31.6

35.5

39.9

44.8

50.4

56.6

Growth %

12.32%

12.32%

12.32%

12.32%

12.32%

Wireless Connectivity Companies

Q3 YTD 2023 Growth %

Broadcom (Wireless)

0.0%

Qualcomm (IOT)

-19.2%

MediaTek (Smart Edge Platform)

-18.0%

Qorvo (CSG)

-40%

Average

-19.3%

RF Comparison

Skyworks (SWKS) (Sky5)

Qualcomm (Snapdragon Modem-RF)

Qorvo (RF Fusion)

Broadcom

Murata

Integrated RFFE Performance (Bandwidth)

100 MHz

100Mhz

100Mhz

N/A

N/A

Integrated RFFE Frequency Range

700Mhz to 6Ghz

600Mhz to 7.2 Ghz

800Mhz to 9Ghz

N/A

N/A

mmWave Modules

No

Yes

No

N/A

N/A

LNA/Filter Modules

Yes

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

Power Tracker

Yes

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

Antenna Tuner

Yes

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

RF transceivers

No

Yes

No

N/A

N/A

Modem Integration

No

Yes

No

N/A

N/A

Connectivity Modules

Yes

Yes

Yes

N/A

N/A

RF Filter

10 MHz to 600 MHz

866.5 MHz to 2.442 GHz

978 MHz to 2560 MHz

2401 MHz to 2481.5 MHz

843 MHz to 875MHz

Wi-Fi 7 Chips

Qualcomm FastConnect 7800

Broadcom BCM43740

MediaTek Filogic 380

Qorvo

Peak Speed

33Gbps

11.5 Gbps

36Gbps

40Gbps

Spectrum Support

5GHz, 6GHz, as well as 2.4GHz

5GHz, 6GHz, as well as 2.4GHz

5GHz, 6GHz, as well as 2.4GHz

5 GHz to 7 GHz

Modulation

4K QAM

4K-QAM

4K-QAM

4K QAM

Multi-Link

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Snapdragon Sound Technology Support

Yes

N/A

N/A

N/A

LE Audio

Yes

N/A

N/A

N/A

Qualcomm aptX™ audio playback support

Yes

N/A

N/A

N/A

Security Support

17

5

N/A

N/A

Qorvo Revenue Breakdown ($ mln) (FY)

2022

2023

Growth

United States

1,928

1,818

-5.7%

China

1,499

741

-50.5%

Other Asia

621

499

-19.6%

Taiwan

346

309

-10.8%

Europe

252

202

-19.5%

China Revenue Growth %

Q3 2023 YTD Growth

Qorvo

-50.88%

Qualcomm

-20.40%

Broadcom*

8.11%

Skyworks

-43.21%

Average

-26.59%

Qorvo Revenue Forecasts ($ mln)

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

2028F

2029F

2030F

Revenue

3,509

3,812

4,149

4,479

4,800

5,110

5,407

5,689

Growth %

-1.7%

8.6%

8.8%

8.0%

7.2%

6.5%

5.8%

5.2%



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