Tompkins Financial: High Dividend Yield And A Positive Earnings Outlook (NYSE:TMP)


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Chiyacat

Earnings of Tompkins Financial Corporation (NYSE:TMP) will likely benefit from the falling interest-rate environment and strong regional labor markets. I’m expecting the company to report earnings of $4.41 per share for this year. Compared to my

Financial Position FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24E
Net Loans 4,878 5,209 5,033 5,223 5,554 5,741
Growth of Net Loans 1.8% 6.8% (3.4)% 3.8% 6.3% 3.4%
Other Earning Assets 1,301 1,995 2,369 1,967 1,742 1,728
Deposits 5,213 6,438 6,791 6,602 6,400 6,625
Borrowings and Sub-Debt 735 344 191 348 653 579
Common equity 662 716 728 616 669 818
Book Value Per Share ($) 44.2 48.6 49.7 42.8 46.7 57.4
Tangible BVPS ($) 37.6 42.0 43.1 36.1 40.1 50.8
Source: SEC Filings, Author’s Estimates (In USD million unless otherwise specified)

Income Statement FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Net interest income 211 225 224 230 210 207
Provision for loan losses 1 17 (2) 3 4 4
Non-interest income 75 74 79 78 10 79
Non-interest expense 182 184 190 196 203 201
Net income – Common Sh. 80 77 89 85 9 63
EPS – Diluted ($) 5.37 5.20 6.05 5.89 0.66 4.41
Source: SEC Filings, Earnings Releases, Author’s Estimates (In USD million unless otherwise specified)

TMP CFFN UVSP OSBC CFB HFWA Peer Average
P/E (“ttm”) 98.26 NM 9.46 7.42 9.62 13.96 10.12
P/E (“fwd”) 11.23 14.78 10.28 7.67 9.15 13.39 11.05
P/B (“ttm”) 1.01 0.65 0.79 1.10 0.91 0.76 0.84
P/TB (“ttm”) 1.18 0.65 1.00 1.31 0.95 1.08 1.00
Source: Seeking Alpha

P/TB Multiple 0.80x 0.90x 1.00x 1.10x 1.20x
TBVPS – Dec 2024 ($) 50.8 50.8 50.8 50.8 50.8
Target Price ($) 40.5 45.6 50.7 55.8 60.8
Market Price ($) 47.4 47.4 47.4 47.4 47.4
Upside/(Downside) (14.4)% (3.7)% 7.0% 17.7% 28.4%
Source: Author’s Estimates

P/E Multiple 9.1x 10.1x 11.1x 12.1x 13.1x
EPS 2024 ($) 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41 4.41
Target Price ($) 40.0 44.4 48.8 53.2 57.6
Market Price ($) 47.4 47.4 47.4 47.4 47.4
Upside/(Downside) (15.6)% (6.3)% 3.0% 12.3% 21.7%
Source: Author’s Estimates



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