Morgan Stanley: Current Stock Price Is Balancing On A Tight Rope (MS)


Morgan Stanley

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Thesis

In my previous article about Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), I assigned a “hold rating on the stock. This was because the results from both models were very far apart. The first was grounded on the available average estimates, which yielded a

CAPM
Risk-Free Rate 4.322%
Beta 1.26
Market Risk Premium 6.128%
Required Rate of Return 12.043%

Commission and Fees Trading Asset Management Underwriting & Investment Banking Net Interest Income Total
2023 4,537.0 15,263.0 19,617.0 4,948.0 8,230.0 52,595.0
2024 4,304.7 14,481.5 18,612.6 4,694.7 7,808.6 49,902.1
2025 5,176.0 17,412.6 22,379.8 5,644.9 9,389.1 60,002.3
2026 5,279.5 17,760.8 23,532.4 5,723.9 9,524.3 61,820.9
2027 5,009.2 16,851.5 22,327.5 5,430.8 9,036.6 58,655.7
2028 6,023.0 20,262.2 26,846.6 6,530.0 10,865.7 70,527.6
2029 6,143.5 20,667.5 28,229.2 6,621.4 11,022.1 72,683.8
Growth rate % 2.00% 2.00% 5.15% 1.40% 1.44%

My Net income Margins %
2024 20.97%
2025 22.62%
2026 24.27%
2027 20.16%
2028 21.81%
2029 23.46%

Average Consensus

Required EPS For a fair price of $102.76 and a future price of $151.28

% Difference
FY 2024 6.75 10.73 59.04%
FY 2025 7.54 12.91 71.19%
FY 2026 8.25 13.30 61.20%
FY 2027 7.64 12.62 65.16%
FY 2028 8.37 15.17 81.37%
FY 2029 9.16 15.64 70.72%
68.47%



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