We Are In Q1 2024, our consumers spent very vigorously on services at the fastest growth rate since 2021, adjusted for inflation, but not so vigorously on goods. And private fixed investment jumped at the fastest rate in two years. But dragging on GDP were the trade deficit, which worsened sharply on a majestic surge…
Houston Chronicle/Hearst Newspapers via Getty Images/Hearst Newspapers via Getty Images Homebuilder stocks have been among the top-performing names in the S&P 500 since the summer of 2022. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has returned nearly 80% in the past 20 months while the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) has almost doubled in that…
stanciuc By Jason Callan, Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Core and Core Plus, Co-Head of Structured Assets; Ryan Osborn, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager, Co-head of Structured Assets As interest rates rose, U.S. consumers remained resilient due to robust balance sheets, but will this last? While cracks are beginning to appear, we see potential opportunities within…
TommL By Eric Winograd. Falling inflation hasn’t yet translated into good feelings among US consumers. Based on the latest data, that might be changing. Over the past few months, analysts have coined a new term to describe this confounding US economic environment: a “vibe-cession.” It seems there’s a wide disconnect between economists’ optimistic assessments based…
Abdullah Durmaz/E+ via Getty Images Investment thesis: With around two-thirds of the US economy dependent on the consumer, the rate of consumer spending growth tends to be the main determining factor that drives the US economy. There are fiscal as well as monetary policies that can affect consumer spending. For instance, high-interest rates for a…
Latin America has identified that regulated, blockchain-based financial services will soon be the order of the day. The world of finance, as we have it today, has changed drastically, and stablecoins and tokenized data may be at the center of this change. So much so, that what used to be a difficult task for businesses…
miniseries With the holiday shopping season underway, the Canadian consumer is still showing a willingness to spend. However, Maria Solovieva, an Economist at TD, says high inflation is weighing on sentiment. She discusses the economic implications with MoneyTalk’s Greg Bonnell. Transcript Greg Bonnell: The latest Canadian retail sales report suggested the consumer is still spending…
golfcphoto Those who can, pay cash to avoid the interest rates. Subprime credit tightens substantially. The balance of auto loans and leases rose by 0.8% in Q3 from Q2, and by 4.7% year-over-year, to 1.60 trillion, driven by financing of new vehicles, according to data from the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report….
Yuri_Arcurs/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…