cagkansayin/iStock via Getty Images Interest rates rose after the March CPI report indicated unexpected inflation persistence, shaking financial markets and increasing two-year Treasury yields. U.S. domestic markets extended their gains during the recent period between Index selection dates (March 14, 2024 – April 11, 2024, the “Period”). Equity markets were largely influenced by the Federal…
Boy Wirat I’ve only recently returned from several weeks in Argentina. I didn’t have access to my charts, and besides, I was rather more interested in people, food, and wine than in blogging. Time now to catch up on the market’s latest focus: Is inflation still stubbornly high? Does the Fed need to tighten more?…
Jonathan Kitchen March Headline CPI came in at 0.4% versus the expectation of 0.3%. The Core rate verified at 0.4%, also a tenth hotter than expected. The year-on-year Headline rate is 3.5%, above the 3.4% forecast, while Core CPI from a year ago is now 3.8%, a tick warmer than the consensus. The 3.5% rate…
Elena Perova Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify The Consumer Price Index for March is due with Fed June odds 50/50. (0:19) J.P. Morgan, Citi and Wells Fargo kick off earnings season. (1:29) Paramount Global nearing deal with Skydance? (3:05) The following is an abridged transcript The top stories to…
Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images The March US employment data were stronger than expected and lend support to the re-acceleration hypothesis and an extension of US exceptionalism. In Q1 24, nonfarm payrolls rose by an average of 276k. It was the strongest quarter in a year and compares with an average monthly job gain of…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. The release of the U.S. inflation report for March…
Boy Wirat/iStock via Getty Images Core services CPI – 61% of total CPI and infamous for historic head fakes – is approaching 6% annualized six-month average. The “core services” CPI (services minus energy services) is crucial. The majority of consumer spending goes to core services, and Powell keeps talking about it. Core services include housing…
Dmytro Skrypnykov CPI Card Group (NASDAQ:PMTS) reported its Q4 results on the 7th of March, showing weakness in financials with customers’ inventory management and cautious customer spending. In my previous write-up titled “CPI Card Group: Bullish Long-Term Future Despite Short-Term Challenges”, published on the 13th of December 2023, I initiated the stock at a buy…
andresr Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify The core CPI is forecast to dip to 3.7%, with headline CPI steady at 3.1%. (0:20) DoJ reportedly investigating Alaska Airlines door blowout. (2:54) BofA sees gold rising, but at a slower rate. (4:46) The following is an abridged transcript The top story…
Pavel Muravev Due to be released on the morning of March 12, this February CPI report is expected to be another hot inflation reading, hotter than the one in January. This could be an essential reading because, as it stands, that would be two months of inflation readings hotter than what was seen at the…
genekrebs/iStock via Getty Images My last article is Rate Cuts For 2024? How About None? Is None Okay For Stocks? My premise for this past article was the very real possibility that the CPI would not give the result everyone was taking for granted. My point wasn’t rooted deeply in econometrics, just life experience when…
Wong Yu Liang/Moment via Getty Images By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation was, once again, hotter than expected, frustrating both the market and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Both headline and core monthly inflation accelerated, while the Fed’s favored supercore inflation measure extended its recent upward trend….
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News The Hot January CPI Report The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the CPI inflation report for January 2024 – and the actual inflation numbers were higher than the consensus estimates. More importantly, the monthly inflation accelerated from the previous month. Let’s take a step back and first state that…
Photography taken by Mario Gutiérrez./Moment via Getty Images Overview The US dollar (DXY, USDOLLAR) is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today’s CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more-resilient-than-expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November,…
anilakkus/iStock via Getty Images Markets have been pricing in a U.S. Fed interest rate cut by as early as March. Will the latest stronger-than-expected CPI data alter those expectations? David Sekera, Chief U.S. Market Strategist with Morningstar Research, looks at the likely scenarios and the implications for markets with MoneyTalk’s Greg Bonnell. Greg Bonnell: Let’s…
Mario Tama/Getty Images News December CPI Report The December CPI came in slightly hot on Thursday morning. The annual consumer price index rose 3.4% on an annual basis. Economists expected 3.2%. The index increased 0.3% in December compared to an expected monthly increase of 0.2%. The hotter-than-expected number probably reduces the chances for a Fed…
andresr The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report was published on January 11, 2024, at 8:30 AM. The report contains information about changes in the prices (inflation/deflation) of a wide array of goods and services purchased by consumers in the U.S. during the month of December 2023. In this report, we will walk readers through a…
JLGutierrez December CPI consensus expectations The US Bureau of Labor is set to release the CPI report for December on January 11th. The consensus market expectations are that the core CPI inflation will decrease from 4% in November to 3.8% in December, with the monthly core CPI at 0.3%; the same as in November. The…
pcess609 Overview After gaining for the past couple of sessions to open the New Year, the dollar is mostly softer today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback was bid above the JPY144 area where chunky options expire today. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer though there are a few exceptions in Asia,…
JulPo I closed out my “Sell” call on CPI Card Group (NASDAQ:PMTS) in late September after the stock fell nearly -60% from my March write-up. I originally placed a “Sell” rating on the stock due to the similarities I saw with the growth it was seeing in contactless cards in 2022 versus what it saw…
LumiNola/iStock via Getty Images CPI Card Group (NASDAQ:PMTS) produces Debit, Credit, and Prepaid Debit cards for banks and other customers in the United States. The company has been able to turn its growth around after 2017, improving the company’s bottom line constantly. In 2023, though, CPI Card Group has experienced challenging demand, resulting in a…
Mario Tama/Getty Images News Shelter costs comprise about one-third of the CPI, and shelter costs are driven primarily by housing prices 18 months before. Which is to say that the way BLS goes about calculating the CPI is bogus. If we take out this bogus component of the CPI, we are left with the fact…
Dilok Klaisataporn By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation progress stumbled slightly last month. Both headline and core monthly inflation quickened, while the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite supercore inflation measure accelerated to one of the quickest paces this year. Today’s inflation data do not reinforce or justify…
According to the latest CPI data published by United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, the surge in consumer prices was propelled by various factors. The shelter index, for instance, continued its upward trend, effectively offsetting a decline in the gasoline index. The energy index, witnessing a 2.3% decrease, was notably impacted by a significant 6.0%…
shih-wei The November CPI came in a touch hotter than expected at +0.1% month-over-month. Core inflation was right on the forecast at +0.3% compared to October. On a year-on-year basis, Headline CPI is now +3.1% while the ex-food and energy rate is +4.0%, unchanged from October – both matching economists’ expectations. The CPI figure itself…
Oleksandr Siedov/iStock via Getty Images By Fawad Razaqzada The GBP/USD is poised for a significant challenge in the upcoming days, spanning the end of this week and much of the next. Anticipation surrounds key data releases from both the UK and the US, with the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday and CPI data on…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. Stocks to Watch subscribers can also tune in on…
Avalon_Studio The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies last week. The dollar-bloc currencies, sterling, and the Scandis led the move, appreciating by about 0.55%-1.40% against the US dollar. The dollar bloc and sterling recorded new highs for the month ahead of the weekend. Against the others, the dollar spent most of last week consolidating…
Andrzej Rostek/iStock via Getty Images The iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TFLO) has been a solid near-cash investment for many investors in the past year, as it enjoyed higher coupons that were tied to the rise in short-term interest rates. However, as we head into 2024, I believe investors need to watch out for…
October CPI Figures released by the Labor Department show that inflation is slowing in the US, even though rate hikes may not be over. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat in October, better than economists’ expectations that the CPI would rise by 0.1%. Core CPI also came in lower than expected at 0.2%, over…
deepblue4you The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report delivered a welcome softening during October, coming in below consensus expectations. Headline inflation increased just 0.04% month-over-month, nearly a complete pause in aggregate price increases. On a year-over-year basis, inflation decelerated to 3.2% after being elevated by rising energy prices in August and September. Core inflation increased…
Bitcoin bulls may be hoping that the expected CPI report may present some respite for BTC, which has struggled to maintain momentum. The general financial market is anticipating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) today to put some figures in perspective regarding the state of the economy. In addition to economic indicators, the content of the…
domin_domin/E+ via Getty Images What to expect from the October CPI report? “These young guys are playing checkers (chess). I’m out there playing chess (Bughouse).” – Kobe Bryant (Jay Powell). The October jobs report was so good that I’d use a saying my dad uses in golf to describe a perfectly hit drive in golf….
coldsnowstorm By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation continues to edge towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target. Annual headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.7%, but core inflation eased from 4.3% to 4.1%, marking its lowest level since September 2021. Despite the lack of surprises in the…
miniseries On a year-over-year basis, the CPI is up 3.7%. Excluding shelter costs, which we know are artificially inflated by BLS methodology, the CPI is up only 2.0%. It is not unreasonable to think that the Fed has successfully arrested the inflation that was caused by $6 trillion of federal deficit spending in 2020 and…
Data released by the Labor Department show that CPI for September increased higher than expected, with several prices up from August. According to figures published by the Labor Department, the prices of goods and services increased quicker than expected in September. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September and 3.7% compared with the same period…
piola666 Earlier this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for the month of September. On a year-over-year basis, inflation came in at 3.7%, while core inflation (which removes food and energy) came in at 4.1% year over year. While core inflation (on a year-over-year basis) is at its lowest level…
andresr/E+ via Getty Images The September CPI report revealed a hotter-than-expected 0.4% rise in monthly consumer prices compared to the +0.3% consensus. The Core rate rose 0.3% last month, matching estimates. The year-on-year headline rate was unchanged at +3.7%, one-tenth to the warm side versus expectations while Core CPI rose 4.1% from a year ago,…
adventtr/iStock via Getty Images The September CPI report will likely show that inflation remains well above the Fed’s target and increases the risk that the Fed will raise rates again following the stronger-than-expected job report. The market now sees a nearly 50% chance that the Fed will raise rates again before this year ends. Meanwhile,…
William_Potter The most important outcome of the last week’s flurry of central bank meetings was the median forecast of Fed officials for 50 bp less in cuts next year than it had anticipated in June as it revised up its growth forecasts for this year and next. The prospect for higher rates for pushed equities…
DjordjeDjurdjevic We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways. -Barton Biggs. There are a lot of angry bears today. I get it. Frankly, I’ve been in their position many times. You are positioned for a data release. The data came out, and your call…
Core inflation in August rose as the CPI showed price increases across several points, including energy, housing and airfares. Core inflation in August saw its largest monthly increase for the year as consumer prices rose on housing, energy, and many other items. According to the United States Department of Labor, the consumer price index (CPI)…
While Bitcoin maintains its stability amid inflationary concerns and economic data releases, other cryptocurrencies face a different fate. In recent months, the world has witnessed a significant degree of financial turbulence as it relates to dwindling crypto prices and concerning Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. One key aspect of this turbulence has been the seesawing…
Lari Bat/iStock via Getty Images By Fawad Razaqzada The fact we also have an interest rate decision from the ECB to look forward to means the EUR/USD will be among the more active pairs, making it the currency pair of the week to watch. What’s Next For The Dollar After Rising For Eight Consecutive Weeks?…
Armstrong pointed out protocols like Truflation, Ampleforth/Spot, and Nuon that are building crucial infrastructure for the development of flatcoins in the near future. The growth of the cryptocurrency market has significantly been spearheaded by top crypto firms like exchanges, and DeFi protocols. Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ: COIN) has played a major role in pushing the…
PixelsEffect It’s been an excellent year for stock market investors with the S&P 500 (SP500) returning more than 17% thus far and nearly 30% higher from the 2022 lows. The combination of a resilient economy, easing inflation, and strong corporate earnings surprised a lot of very smart people from this time last year. We’ve been…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. Stocks to Watch subscribers can also tune in on…
Mike_Pellinni/iStock via Getty Images The diverging economic performance between the US and Europe, Japan, and China on the other hand is stark. Yet, a greater divergence may be between widespread discussion of de-dollarization and its incredible strength in the foreign exchange market. The eight-week rally in the Dollar Index (DXY) is the longest in nine…
Just_Super Introduction The stock of CPI Card Group (NASDAQ:PMTS), a micro-cap, payment tech specialist has had a rough ride this year, particularly since May; all in all, on a YTD basis, the stock has lost around a third of its market-cap, even as its peers from the micro-cap space have eked out single-digit returns. In…