ChiccoDodiFC/iStock via Getty Images There are three supporting themes driving our conviction that the timing for investing in gold, silver, copper, and other metal exploration stocks has never been more compelling: In our analysis, the unsustainable debt and government deficits in developed economies make inflationary pressures intractable and fiat currencies more susceptible to debasement than…
Dragon Claws/iStock via Getty Images TLT, inflation and fiscal sustainability The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) provides investors with exposure to Treasury bonds with extended duration. As pointed out by the TLT ETF’s description (the emphases were added by me), it “seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S….
Montes-Bradley With hindsight, the trade of the cycle was to short long duration Treasuries on surging interest rates due to the fastest rate hike cycle in history. And certain products, like the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (NYSEARCA:PFIX), really thrived in terms of not just the timing of their launch, but performance, execution, and assets…
shayes17/E+ via Getty Images Introduction This article updates my outlook for 2024 with the latest Momentum Gauge® signals and a revisit of the January Investing Experts Podcast interview with Rena Sherbill at Seeking Alpha. This past April 2nd marked an early negative Momentum Gauge® test signal followed by an official negative daily signal on April…
http://www.fotogestoeber.de/iStock via Getty Images We have been following Artificial Intelligence (AI) at Manning & Napier for decades, and despite the recent buzz, AI is not a new concept. Scientist Alan Turing wrote the first AI manifesto, “Intelligent Machinery” in 1948. Eight years later, Dartmouth College held a workshop where the term “artificial intelligence” was coined…
This article is written in partnership with Unchained, the official US Collaborative Custody Partner of Bitcoin Magazine and integral sponsor of related content published through Bitcoin Magazine. For more information on services offered, custody products, and the relationship between Unchained and Bitcoin Magazine, please visit our website. Â Bitcoin tumbled below $60,000 over the weekend, fueled…
Benjamas Deekam/iStock via Getty Images By Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the updated ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, which has seen some progress underneath the surface despite not having any indicator changes. And, he shares his views on…
da-kuk There will come a point when Technology no longer rules the momentum world in the short term. I actually think we’re pretty close and the long-awaited rotation out of growth indices into value ones will come. But if you disagree, and still want exposure to the Nasdaq as a proxy for growth, the Fidelity…
beast01/iStock via Getty Images Thesis Summary Behind the scenes, literally, of many TV stations across America is one parent company that is often under-covered in analyst coverage, so to change gears from my usual financial or consumer products stocks today I’m “switching the channel” to cover Nexstar Media Group (NASDAQ:NXST). I rated the stock a…
Dilok Klaisataporn The following is an overview of the market cycle as it stands at the beginning of Q1 2024. We will focus on the core of the cycle—corporate earnings—and work our way out in order to gain a comprehensive view of markets across asset classes. This will help organize our analysis over the coming…
SHansche/iStock via Getty Images Introduction Safe Bulkers (NYSE:SB) is another mid-size bulk carrier company. It is an exciting proposition with its fleet of 46 vessels at an average age of ten years. Twenty-two ships are equipped with scrubbers, and 100% have a ballast water treatment system. SB has a solid balance sheet with 57% total…
DKosig In June 1999, the US Fed began an 11-month rate hiking cycle that took the overnight rate from 4.75 to 6.5% by May 2000. Amid tech-mania-inspired irrational exuberance, the S&P 500 hit 1527 by March 2000, sold off into the summer, and rebounded to double top at 1521 by September on soft-landing forecasts. What…
Mario Tama Thesis A friend of mine is retiring this month and asked me to point him in the direction of companies with attractive yield on cost potential. My first response was that he should check out Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE:MO). They have significant cash flow and have been buying back shares, this has allowed…
SweetBunFactory Ultra Clean Holdings (NASDAQ:UCTT) has been an extremely strong performer over the long term in the semiconductor equipment space. However, the recent downswing in the industry has led to a significant pullback in the shares, with market participants looking for a potential bottom in revenue. Ultra Clean tends to move up and down quickly…
Pogonici There are still 23 days to go before calendar year 2023 rolls to an end. That leaves plenty of time for surprises of a good or not good variety to make themselves known to the market. In terms of things we do know, though, there really is just one more big news cycle to…
StudioEasy/iStock via Getty Images Debt structure – leverage The current recorded on-balance sheet dollar liabilities are $94,75 Trillion. See the breakdown below: TOTAL DOLLAR LIABILITIES (FRED, BIS) Current dollar liabilities is 357% of U.S. GDP currently (recorded $94 T., not included $80T FX Swaps, other offshore bilateral repo transactions). After the GFC dollar leverage (recorded…
Tarcisio Schnaider/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Following the positive news of S&P Global Ratings, we are back to comment on CNH Industrial N.V. today (NYSE: NYSE:CNHI). Here at the Lab, we have a deep coverage of the Exor investments, and after the Q3 results, we decided to reduce our target price and estimates for the…
PM Images/DigitalVision via Getty Images We previously covered ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) (OTCPK:ASMLF) in July 2023, discussing the sluggish stock movement after the previous FQ2’23 double beat and raised FY2023 outlook. We had rated the stock as a Buy then, with the stock’s depressed levels offering opportunistic growth/ income investors with the chance to dollar…
RafaPress/iStock Editorial via Getty Images BRF S.A. (NYSE:BRFS) has outperformed the Brazilian stock market this year, particularly in the second half. This impressive performance can be attributed to a rebound following a challenging period, during which the company faced significant pressure on its margins due to high global corn and soybean prices. However, since June,…
FinkAvenue Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:INTC) announces its Q3 2023 earnings post-market on October 26, 2023. In the last quarter, Intel exceeded expectations, despite a nearly 16% year-on-year drop in total revenue. Notably, the company managed to halt the quarter-over-quarter declines in two of its critical business segments, possibly indicating a potential stabilization for the chipmaker, which…
Everyone has heard about the 4-year cycle that Bitcoin is going through, but have you ever thought of the idea that Bitcoin might be going through a bigger cycle? And could this bigger cycle reflect the way humans adopt new technologies? And is it possible we have seen something similar before with another technology like…
anyaberkut This blog is the first installment of a four-part series that examines the tactical and strategic case for investing internationally despite a multi-year period of U.S. equity outperformance. Over the past several months, we’ve fielded a series of questions from advisors about why they should EVER allocate outside of the U.S. For the last…
Receive free Global Economy updates We’ll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest Global Economy news every morning. As evidence mounts that global economic activity is slowing, economists, financial markets and most central banks have become convinced that no further interest rate rises will be needed. This week policymakers in the…
Dilok Klaisataporn Bank lending is contracting across world economies. The percentage of US banks tightening their credit to large and medium firms (below since 1990 via Tier 1 Alpha) now above 40% – was only seen during the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2001 Dotcom bust, and the 1990-91 recession. As higher interest…
brijith vijayan/iStock via Getty Images While economists won’t ratchet Q3 growth estimates up to match the Atlanta Fed GDPNow’s 5.9%, forecasts will be moving higher. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged for August, near a multi-decade low 3.5%. August Services PMI data point to some cooling, while stronger-than-expected (17-month high) New Home Sales…
brunocoelhopt/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The lower volume outlook from containership major A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (OTCPK:AMKBF) (OTCPK:AMKAF) was a key negative coming out of an otherwise positive quarter, signaling a longer-than-expected destocking cycle from here. The pessimism was largely consistent with commentary from global freight forwarders like Kuehne + Nagel (OTCPK:KHNGF), discounting hopes…
monsitj Editor’s note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on August 15, 2023 It is worth paying close attention when a market trends into a period during which a turning point is likely based on historical cyclicality. The gold mining sector has just entered such a period. We are referring to the strong tendency of the gold…
naphtalina/iStock via Getty Images Investment update Pediatrix Medical Group (NYSE:MD) posted its Q2 FY’23 numbers last week, and on detailed examination, there is much to be desired for the company’s investment prospects. Based on the analysis shown here today, it is of my belief MD is not an investment-grade company at this point. The revenue…
Receive free US economy updates We’ll send you a myFT Daily Digest email rounding up the latest US economy news every morning. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell had a message for global markets on Wednesday after the US central bank raised interest rates again: no one should doubt its resolve to snuff out stubbornly-high inflation…