ronniechua The latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey was an economic warning that departed widely from more robust governmental reports. In a recent analysis of small businesses, we discussed the importance those business owners play in the economy. “It is crucial to understand that small and mid-sized businesses comprise a substantial percentage of…
Torsten Asmus Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Yimin Xu of Cestrian Capital Research on past easing cycles, strong economic data and Fed rate cuts (0:40). Sticky inflation and bond market equilibrium (2:30). Attractive 10-year yields (5:00). This is an abridged conversation from Seeking Alpha’s Investing Experts podcast. Transcript Rena…
petesphotography/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images About six months ago, Raytheon Technologies (NYSE:RTX) was in Wall Street’s proverbial doghouse because of an engine issue requiring major fixes, major financial hits, and a major inconvenience to its customers. At the time, I pointed out that finding out about the issue this way, instead of in a tragic…
wimagine/iStock via Getty Images Fundamentals The discussions within the BRICS bloc about creating an alternative payment system signify a significant geopolitical shift with far-reaching economic implications. Led by Russia, this move underscores a growing desire among emerging economies to reduce dependence on the United States and the dollar-dominated financial infrastructure. The BRICS bloc, now expanded…
Maksim Labkouski Global PMI rises for fourth straight month to hit eight-month high S&P Global’s PMI surveys indicated that the global economy gained further growth momentum in February. At an eight-month high of 52.1, against 51.8 in January, the headline PMI covering manufacturing and services over 40 economies has now risen for four consecutive months….
Pixelimage/iStock via Getty Images S&P Global Market Intelligence’s global growth forecast for 2024 has again been revised upward in March. Annual real GDP growth is now projected at 2.6%, up from 2.3% at the start of the year. The upward revision reflects somewhat higher forecasts for growth in several countries, including the US, the UK,…
DNY59 As the S&P 500 has risen to new highs, analysts and investors have played down valuation concerns as they still compare favourably to the 2000 bubble peak. Justifying expensive valuations by comparing them with the biggest bubble in US history tells us something about the bullish sentiment in the market, but it also ignores…
Omar Osman By Ewa Manthey YTD metals performance % Source: LME, ING Research China’s 2024 economic goals disappoint Industrial metals have mostly struggled this year amid a disappointing recovery in China, with a property downturn and weak manufacturing continuing to weigh on prices. This week China unveiled its economic targets for 2024 at the latest…
champc With the month of February coming to an end this week, a majority of 2024 is still before us. As the year began, many strategists predicted up to six Fed Fund rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The first cut was anticipated to occur in March, but economic data and Federal Reserve commentary has…
Khanchit Khirisutchalual The Federal Reserve remains data-dependent, as the central bank’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, likes to say, and perhaps that’s especially true now as policymakers weigh the prospects for when (or if) to start cutting interest rates this year. Recent economic data has again raised doubts about the timing for the arrival of a dovish…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. Stocks to Watch subscribers can also tune in on…
GOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images When it comes to deciding when to begin cutting key short-term interest rates, it seems to me that the Federal Reserve seems overly fixated on small monthly variations in various inflation indicators rather than paying attention to the dramatic slowdown in the U.S. economy. In my view, they should start cutting…
MR.Cole_Photographer/Moment via Getty Images The US employment data blew away expectations, jumping by 353k, nearly twice the median forecast. That, coupled with the 0.6% rise in average hourly earnings, which was also twice expectations, helped drive home the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to endorse what had been market speculation of a March rate cut and an…
Blazing electronic signs along the highway that connects downtown Detroit to its more prosperous western suburbs announce an unfamiliar cause for optimism in a city that a decade ago was so broke that it could not even pay for street lights. “Two more,” the signs exhort in blue and white, referring to the number of…
Bill Varie/The Image Bank via Getty Images The fundamentals for oil are breaking down with the global economy increasingly set to be beset by poor economic growth, technical recessions, and emerging market sovereign defaults. The International Energy Agency’s January Oil Market Report predicts a substantial oil surplus in 2024 with surging oil production from US…
MR.Cole_Photographer/Moment via Getty Images The week ahead features the first estimate of US Q4 GDP, which will be revised for the next couple of years, and policy meetings by the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, and Norges Bank, Norway’s central bank. Although the market anticipates the beginning of an…
The 54th World Economic Forum in Davos gathers global leaders to discuss challenges ranging from geopolitical tensions to AI impact. Key themes include security, economic growth, AI ethics, and climate strategy. From January 15 to 19, 2024, the small Swiss alpine town of Davos will once again become the epicenter of global discussions with the…
Bitcoin may now be used to determine the market value of goods and services in the region. Bitcoin (BTC) has scored yet another big win in a special economic zone in Roatan, Honduras. Barely two years after adopting the cryptocurrency as legal tender, it has now also officially recognized it as a unit of account….
Dilok Klaisataporn APAC GDP growth expected to remain strong Economic growth in the APAC region strengthened in 2023, reaching an estimated pace of 4.5% year-over-year (y/y), significantly higher compared with GDP growth of 3.3% in 2022. An important factor supporting the upturn in growth momentum during 2023 was improving growth in mainland China following the…
SergeyZavalnyuk Investment thesis: Betting on Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) might not make much sense if one is expecting a more or less stagnated global economy or worse in 2024. There is a distinct possibility that at times its stock price will see a significant decline from current levels. I see such a possible decline in its…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. Stocks to Watch subscribers can also tune in on…
Tast Nawarat The Fed has conquered inflation. It’s time to start easing. The economy looks OK, no looming recession. Chart #1 Chart #1 is arguably the most important chart that the market and the Fed have almost completely ignored for decades. Sure, everyone talks about the money supply (the best measure of which is M2),…
Pedro Truffi/iStock via Getty Images The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSEARCA:EWZ) is poised to conclude a robust year marked by substantial gains, with Brazilian equities approaching levels close to the stock market’s all-time highs (Ibovespa). This performance comes amid widespread skepticism about the policies of the new Lula administration and a macroeconomic landscape that has…
Lemon_tm/iStock via Getty Images Once a quarter, the St Louis Fed releases delinquency rates on consumer and business loans. With the consumer at 67.8% of GDP, this chart shows the two categories of consumer borrowings, Single-Family Mortgages and Consumer Loans with a sub-set of Credit Card debt. Commercial Loans represent the business borrowings. Excepting the…
champc Where are we in the business cycle? Within my previous deep-dive on the state of the US economy, my overriding thesis was although economic resilience has been the theme of 2023, we were likely to see a slow but steady deterioration in hard economic data as we approached the end of 2023 and entered…
Bitcoin price is likely to push higher in December despite the regulatory pressure in the United States as the Fed struggles to lower inflation to 2 percent. The Bitcoin (BTC) narrative as a global reserve currency is fast catching up with poor monetary policies around the world. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin price edged…
Marcus Lindstrom/iStock via Getty Images Have you heard about Vontier Corporation (NYSE:VNT)? It’s one of those under-the-radar companies that’s been quietly making waves. This year, as the U.S. economy flexed its muscles against rising interest rates, Vontier stood out as a resilient player. I’ve brought this gem to your attention before, suggesting it’s worth keeping…
Mny-Jhee/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
Douglas Rissing Is good news now good news? And is bad news now bad news? I think we might be there. Consider what transpired last week – cool CPI data paired with, at long last, a tame Retail Sales print. Wholesale prices were also much softer than expected, as seen through October PPI figures. Not…
Stephen Shugerman/Getty Images Entertainment JAKKS Pacific, the focus of my first SeekingAlpha article in May 2022, has rewarded investors with an impressive 92.16% return since then. Witnessing this underdog triumph against industry giants like Hasbro (HAS) and Mattel (MAT) has been gratifying. Starting with a market cap of $128.33 million, the company has grown to…
Teka77 Introduction It’s time to dive into macroeconomics and one of my favorite (cyclical) dividend growth stocks on the market: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT). As it turns out, Caterpillar is currently the smallest holding of my 20-stock dividend growth portfolio. That’s not necessarily because of its performance (I’m up roughly 100% since my initial investment) but…
http://www.fotogestoeber.de/iStock via Getty Images This article was coproduced with Dividend Sensei. In recent weeks, we’ve had some exceptional economic data, and the stock market has certainly been reacting bullishly to the news. YCharts In fact, we just had our best weekly rally in almost a year, with stocks soaring 6%, REITs soaring 9%, and some…
da-kuk The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is arguably one of the most important and overlooked economic indicators. Each month, economists, the media, and investors pour over various mainstream economic indicators, from GDP to employment and inflation, to determine what markets will likely do next. While economic numbers like GDP or the monthly non-farm…
ronniechua Introduction Those of you who follow me know I’m a big fan of Business Development Companies. They are great for income investors like me who plan to supplement their dividend income in retirement. BDCs are some of the best vehicles for income. But many investors choose to stay away from these as they are…
Despite the varied economic performance across the 20-country common currency bloc, the challenges stemming from high inflation persist. The Eurozone is grappling with a significant economic downturn, as recent data indicate a sharp drop in inflation and a contraction in the region’s economy. According to a preliminary report published Tuesday by Eurostat, the European Union…
Kinwun Investment Thesis I expect Corning Incorporated (NYSE:GLW) to face challenges in 2024, particularly due to weaker optical sales and mixed demand in its display business. The anticipated recovery in the optical segment may be delayed as telecommunications customers reduce their investments and work through excess inventory. The catalysts for optical growth, such as stimulus…
franckreporter Investment update In May this year, I published a report on Bruker Corporation (NASDAQ:BRKR), titled “Fundamental, Market Generated Data Corroborate Buy Thesis”, reiterating the company as a buy in the process. Since then, there have been multiple investment updates. Notwithstanding the travel of the broad market in H2 FY’23, BRKR itself has sold off…
JHVEPhoto Marsh & McLennan (NYSE:MMC) released their Q3 FY23 results on October 19th, demonstrating significant achievements. They delivered a remarkable 10% growth in organic revenue, accompanied by a 24% increase in adjusted operating income and an impressive 33% surge in adjusted EPS. These figures showcase their robust performance and ability to thrive across economic cycles….
The ripple effect of the Chinese market plunge has extended to other major Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s Kospi also experiencing declines. China’s stock market has hit a significant low not seen since the pre-pandemic era, rattling investors as the country grapples with various economic challenges and regulatory scrutiny. The country’s…
Vlad Antonov/iStock via Getty Images Executive summary: The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has made some relatively painless progress thus far in its inflation fight. Some other prominent economists have walked back their forecast for a near-term recession. However, we believe a mild-to-moderate recession in the U.S. and other major developed market economies (e.g., Canada, the…
Last week, the release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual increase of 3.7%. Treasury yields in the United States saw a modest increase earlier today, amid the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the country’s economic outlook. Investors continued to grapple with concerns related to monetary policy and…
This strategic investment, totaling around $65 million, translates to approximately 0.01 percentage point in each bank. The impact on the market was immediate and substantial, with shares of these major banks soaring between 2.43% and 4.73% in the early hours of Thursday. China’s sovereign wealth fund, Central Huijin Investment Ltd, has taken a significant step…
Treasury yields fell in the US as the war between Israel and Hamas rages on, with several thousand dead and wounded. Treasury yields fell in the US on Tuesday as investors consider the economic and geopolitical effects of the ongoing war between Israel and Palestinian militant movement Hamas. Early Tuesday morning, the 10-year Treasury fell…
Daria Nipot Whether you love the company or hate it, e-commerce and cloud giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is one of the largest companies on the planet with a market capitalization of over $1.3 trillion. Historically speaking, betting against the company has not gone well. In the past decade, for instance, the market value of the company…
naphtalina/iStock via Getty Images Investment briefing It turned out to be a prudent call to hold off investing in the equity stock of DaVita Inc. (NYSE:DVA) in my last coverage. Since that publication in July, the firm hasn’t unlocked additional risk capital for equity investors, as seen in Figure 1. The stock now sold below…
Pgiam/iStock via Getty Images Investment summary Trading at a c.50% discount to the sector at 8x forward earnings and 9x forward EBIT, Allegiant Travel Company (NASDAQ:ALGT) has popped onto our radar with potential relative value. As I’ll cover here today, though, the economic value of ALGT in the investment context does not support a rating…
The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine’s premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now. If Recession, Then Not Inflation Last week, I wrote about the Fed Funds Futures curve, concluding…
selamiozalp/iStock via Getty Images When bank economists get bearish, you know that data looks pretty dour. Kudos to Robert for candour in this interview. The chart below shows Canada’s real GDP (in blue since 2021) and the grim per capita reality (in yellow). Canadian consumer sentiment is negative for a reason: there are increasingly fewer…
The US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders in August improved by 0.2% month-on-month (m/m) following a 5.6% decline in the previous reading. The EUR/USD currency pair, one of the important barometers of global economic sentiment, found itself under pressure during the early Asian session earlier today, struggling around the 1.0500 mark. EUR/USD Pair…
franckreporter Investment briefing Shares of TFI International Inc (NYSE:TFII) have climbed a steady wall since the company listed on the NYSE back in 2020. Investors have rallied the stock 37% over the last 12 months at the time of writing, driven by a number of economic value factors. For reference, TFII is a logistics and…