imaginima The monthly job report is not a cudgel for making political points… If you are an investor you have a burning need to understand this month’s employment report for what it is. Unfortunately, if you read any analysis you’re going to read comments by a lot of people who are trying to fit the…
Tarathip Kwankeeree Recent data on the US employment market is sending mixed signals, raising concerns about potential turbulence ahead. While overall job numbers appear positive, three key indicators point to underlying weaknesses that could undermine the job market’s momentum. Finding A Job Is Getting Increasingly Difficult Continued claims for unemployment insurance have materially increased in…
MR.Cole_Photographer/Moment via Getty Images The US employment data blew away expectations, jumping by 353k, nearly twice the median forecast. That, coupled with the 0.6% rise in average hourly earnings, which was also twice expectations, helped drive home the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to endorse what had been market speculation of a March rate cut and an…
herkisi Overview The dollar (USDOLLAR, DXY) is offered ahead of today’s US jobs report, even though expectations are for solid, if not spectacular, jobs growth of around 185k. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are leading today’s move, while the euro approached $1.09, which it has not traded above this week. Sterling neared the lower…
Peter Hansen/iStock via Getty Images This is a chart that people will be talking about for a long time now. This shows the ISM Services Employment Index. Services have been extremely strong for the last few years, and it’s been a consistent bright spot in the economy. It’s been so strong that it’s forced the…
GOCMEN Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy created 199,000 jobs in the month of November and that the unemployment rate had fallen to 3.7%. The report continues a trend of slowing job growth, as the last three months of labor reports indicate a trend like 2018 levels versus those…
RichLegg According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 199k jobs were created in November, better than the +190k consensus, while private payrolls were up 150k, slightly under expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.7%, the lowest since July, as a large number of people entered the workforce. Big picture, the jobless rate…
NoSystem images/iStock via Getty Images By Ed Moya US This week Wall Street will learn how quickly the US consumer is weakening and if the manufacturing part of the economy is close to entering recovery mode. The US retail sales report for September is expected to show monthly sales increased 0.3%, down from the 0.6%…
Parradee Kietsirikul/iStock via Getty Images Market sentiment has improved from record lows of early June ’23 using the S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures Positions (weekly data from Feb 2015) as the measure. Fear began to creep in as the S&P 500 peaked in Dec 2021-Jan 2022. Since then, it has been non-stop recession predictions as…