Bet_Noire Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari was interviewed by The Wall Street Journal and appeared on Fox News and Bloomberg TV last week. Neel has great credentials: he (1) ran the TARP program under former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen, then (2) moved to Truckee, California to write a book, then (3) ran for California Governor on…
Analysts are expecting the Fed to pivot by March 2024 and begin the first rate cuts. Bitcoin and the crypto market are expected to rally in this scenario. Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained its position with the price around the $35,000 mark for the past 24 hours, with some attributing this stability to the possibility of…
naphtalina/iStock via Getty Images Investment brief The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the policy rate at a 5 handle in its November FOMC meeting is a potential bullish turning point for US equities over the coming 12—18 months. Investors have already lifted the bid on U.S. indices since Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke this week,…
Fed chair Jerome Powell and the rest of the committee are convinced of slower economic growth in the coming quarters amid softening labor market conditions. For the second consecutive meeting, the United States Federal Reserve Committee chose to hold its prior interest rate hikes at between 5.25 and 5.50 percent during Wednesday’s largely anticipated FOMC…
insjoy Higher for how much longer? “The extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate…” The FOMC voted unanimously to keep its five policy rates unchanged today, with the top of its policy rates at 5.50%, as had been broadly messaged in recent weeks in speeches by Fed governors. It was the second meeting…
Bitcoin forms a “Golden Cross” pattern on the technical charts suggesting a bullish price actions going ahead. The world’s largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating around $34,400 levels recently with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently deciding to soften its grip on the “yield curve control” program. On Tuesday, the central bank maintained the…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. Stocks to Watch subscribers can also tune in on…
MicroStockHub In January 2023, the clues appeared to be aligning in favor of an end to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. It was a false dawn – the Fed lifted its target rate four times in subsequent months, by a total of 100 basis points. Fast forward to today, and once again the numbers leave…
Maria Vonotna Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Rob Isbitts and Matthew Tuttle discuss focusing on the Fed, Magnificent Seven earnings and why a little bit of bullishness may be warranted (0:25). Loving and hating earnings season (8:30) and bonds becoming really good competition for stocks (14:00). Transcript Rob Isbitts:…
Nastassia Samal Hiring picked up sharply in September, reversing signs of a cooling labor market. In September, the economy added 336,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, above the average gain of 267,000 over the previous 12 months. These payroll gains were nearly double consensus expectations of 170,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8% in…
Ralf Hahn/iStock via Getty Images By Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist As the metals markets enter the last quarter of another turbulent year, the industry prepares to gather in London for a week of meetings and contract negotiations against a backdrop of a flagging Chinese economic recovery, slowing global growth and high interest rate environment. The…
sturti/E+ via Getty Images Ahead of the nonfarm payroll employment report for September 2023, U.S. Treasury yields increased sharply. The 10-year treasury (IEF) approached 5.0% earlier this week, only to back off. The jobs growth surge in September will likely push Treasury yields to multi-year highs. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000, compared to the 160,000…
The affordability of funding new houses is expected to strain the already heavily taxed small businesses and individuals. At current 30-year mortgage rates of about 7.72 percent, it would cost a borrower about $1,429 every month to service a $200,000 housing plan, thus putting the total interest on the mortgage at about $314,325. The rising…
Diy13 Last week’s decline in stock and bond prices was instigated by what I view as a misinterpretation of the Fed’s latest policy moves. It comes from the assumption that good news on the economic front is bad news for markets, because economic strength will fuel inflation, which will force the Fed to raise interest…
marketlan Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Matthew Tuttle and Rob Isbitts discuss the reaction to the Fed not raising rates this past week (0:40), sussing out the real market narrative (7:00), technical levels and the 10-year (14:00). Transcript Rob Isbitts: Welcome to Seeking Alpha’s Wall Street Breakfast, Sunday Edition….
Dilok Klaisataporn The Fed held rates steady at their September meeting, and, as evidenced by the latest dot plot, left the door open for another rate hike this year. However, FOMC member projections are rarely a reliable tracing of the actual Fed policy path, and investors should instead turn their focus to the bigger picture…
Dilok Klaisataporn Brad Simpson, Chief Wealth Strategist at TD Wealth, speaks with Greg Bonnell about the latest U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the state of the economy, and the implications for markets. Transcript Greg Bonnell: The US Federal Reserve has signaled that it may be keeping rates higher for longer. So how should we…
JLGutierrez US It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic releases, with the focus falling on the consumer and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. August personal income is expected to rise given the strong labor market while spending cooled given the end of summer vacations. The bond market will pay…
Matt Cardy By Fawad Razaqzada Earlier, the Bank of England announced interest rates would be kept unchanged in a surprise move (not to us) and the pound took another plunge, dropping below 1.2250 in an initial reaction. The BoE’s policy statement was somewhat hawkish and the MPC split. This means that the next few policy…
Amid sticky inflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that they would approach the monetary policy very cautiously. Analysts expect only two rate cuts instead of four, in 2024. On Thursday, September 21, the US Treasury yields experienced an upward surge approaching levels not observed in over a decade. This movement followed the Federal Reserve’s announcement…
niphon/iStock via Getty Images I think Fed officials set the stage for one of the greatest bear traps of all time yesterday with the adjustments they made to their Summary of Economic Projections. What is a bear trap? It is a false signal that a reversal is coming from what was an up-trending stock market…
insjoy By William J. Luther The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold its federal funds rate target range at 5.25 to 5.50 percent on Wednesday. However, FOMC members also signaled that another rate hike is likely in the fourth quarter of this year. In the latest Summary of Economic Projections, twelve…
Dilok Klaisataporn By Kevin Flanagan As was widely expected, the Fed kept the Fed Funds Rate target unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. As a result, the trading range remains at 5.25%–5.50%. While the policymakers continue to keep their options open for another potential rate hike before year-end, as I’ve said many times before, we…
Dilok Klaisataporn By James Knightley, Chief International Economist; Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas; and Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE The Fed has left the Fed funds target range at 5.25-5.5% and continues to indicate the prospect of another 25bp hike this year….
Julia Nikhinson/Getty Images News The U.S. Federal Reserve is due to announce its decision following a two-day monetary policy meeting which ends on September 20. For an event that is usually surrounded by intense anticipation and debate among economists and traders, the upcoming meeting appears to be generating much less attention and discussion than before….
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News The Fed may pass on raising rates this week, but that doesn’t mean they are done. Given the stronger-than-expected economic growth witnessed over the last few months, it seems more likely than not that the Fed will signal through its Summary of Economic Projections that another hike may be needed while…
bfk92/iStock via Getty Images There are three FOMC meetings left in 2023. The market currently prices very low odds of a hike at the September or December meeting and instead places the highest chances for a hike at the meeting after next in November. Many bears are hoping for a hike or two after inflation…
Midnight Studio US The main event of the week will be the September FOMC meeting. Powell and Co. are expected to keep rates steady but may still signal one more rate increase is coming. Too many upside surprises with service/jobs/consumer readings will keep the Fed upbeat on the economy, forcing them to revise up their…
manassanant pamai By Brian Luke I love this time of year. August vacations are over, the kids are back in school and football season kicks off in the U.S. The Fed took its August “vacation” at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Jerome Powell’s remarks singularly focused on price stability. Inflation has come down but “remains…
MicroStockHub/iStock via Getty Images The relative case for cash continues to strengthen, with the 30-day SEC yield on the iShares Treasury Floating Rate Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:TFLO) now at 5.3%, which is extremely high relative to inflation expectations and the yields available on risky bonds and stocks. It would likely take significant Fed rate cuts and…
courtneyk/E+ via Getty Images The August jobs report released yesterday saw unemployment rise to 3.8%, the highest level in a year and a half. This reflects progress in rebalancing the labour market, which Fed Chairman Jay Powell said “remains incomplete” at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium late last month. Here I take a closer…
The Bitcoin price has once again retraced back to $26,000 after some recovery pump earlier this week. On the technical chart, BTC continues to show bearish momentum with its price dropping under the 200-day moving average (DMA). In a sharp-worded attack, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that “risk assets of finite supply” are likely to…
Douglas Rissing Top-down approach The top-down approach of investment analysis, and especially the timing of the business cycle, is mostly based on the monetary policy cycle. Specifically, it’s a well-established fact that, since WW2, all recessions have been preceded by the monetary policy tightening cycle. In fact, I just recently published a paper in which…
primeimages I’ve long believed that the Fed and most media observers are confused about how inflation works. That’s because most people are still captive to the traditional Phillips Curve model of inflation, which says that in order to tame inflation, the economy needs to suffer a significant slowdown in growth. In turn, that means that…
LD U.S. consumer prices ticked higher in July, but by less than analysts expected. MoneyTalk’s Greg Bonnell discusses what it means for interest rates with Chris Whelan, Senior Canada Rates Strategist with TD Securities. Greg Bonnell: While US consumer prices did tick a little higher in July, the increase was less than Wall Street was…
David Schwartz seems unsurprised that the Fed is reacting negatively to the new stablecoin issued by PayPal. Ripple’s chief technology officer (CTO) David Schwartz has commented on the increased regulatory requirements imposed by the US Fed for the country’s cryptocurrency environment. Schwartz tweeted a shady remark, referring to PayPal’s newly launched stablecoin (PYUSD) and whether or not…
O’Leary says the Fed could still increase rates to 6.25% or 6.5%, resulting in bank failures in regional institutions . Popular Shark Tank investor Kevin O’Leary has sounded a note of warning about the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle applied to fight inflation. According to O’Leary, the Fed’s continuous rate hikes could result in more US…
Custodia, an innovative bitcoin and cryptocurrency bank seeking to establish a charter in Wyoming, took a bold step by filing a groundbreaking lawsuit against the Federal Reserve on June 7, 2022. The legal action stemmed from the Fed’s inexplicable delay in approving Custodia’s application for a “Master Account,” a process that typically takes 5-7 days…