Pobytov/E+ via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
rarrarorro Eurozone manufacturing output has contracted in all bar two of the past 22 months, according to the PMI® survey data compiled by S&P Global. The data follow official statistics showing production in January was some 7.0% lower than a year ago. With the exception of the pandemic lockdowns, this represented the steepest annual rate…
wildpixel Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.”…
Trifonov_Evgeniy/iStock via Getty Images I am starting to feel bullish as we might be sailing past the “Ides of March” On the surface, the price action of NVIDIA (NVDA) could be a concern, especially as we once again see key economic data – the CPI revealed on March 12, and the PPI revealed on the…
GOCMEN/iStock via Getty Images When it comes to deciding when to begin cutting key short-term interest rates, it seems to me that the Federal Reserve seems overly fixated on small monthly variations in various inflation indicators rather than paying attention to the dramatic slowdown in the U.S. economy. In my view, they should start cutting…
Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark…
megaflopp/iStock via Getty Images The weekly winning streak ended at nine, with stocks finally taking a breather to start 2024. I would not read anything more into last week’s decline than one step toward resolving an overbought condition. The indexes averaged a gain of 17% over the last nine weeks of the year, so we…
FG Trade Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to…
DaLiu/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
adventtr/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
Khosrork/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
DNY59 Thesis Summary In 2022, everyone was expecting a recession in 2023. Now, we are one month away from ending the year, and there is no recession in sight. In fact, we have seen plenty of evidence to suggest quite the opposite. The US economy is doing very well for now. With that said, things…
Eoneren Short-Selling Indicators During the heyday of technical analysis from 1960 to 1985, some of the best indicators of market direction were the odd lot and public short selling ratios. High levels of short selling were positive for stocks while low levels were negative. Unfortunately, with the emergence of index futures and arbitrage short selling…
StudioEasy Introduction Historically, the Index of Leading Indicators (“LEI” and “the Index”) has had the inconvenient habit of being more accurate than Wall Street forecasters. But, of course, no forecasting tool is perfect, and in the past year the Index, if accurate, would have had us in a very deep recession by this point, as…
constantinopris/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
jetcityimage It has been a tough year fundamentally for Wayfair (NYSE:W), the online furniture company that experienced its biggest heyday during the pandemic when people were rushing out of cities and eager to fill new homes. Wayfair stock remains up more than 60% year to date, but is well off highs as the markets digest…
Wipada Wipawin Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to…
William_Potter/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
piyaset/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
manyu ng/iStock via Getty Images This is a follow-up to last year’s long-term buy signal in gold, “Investor Activity In GLD Suggests A Price Breakout.” Just like silver, gold has essentially gone nowhere for three years. On September 18th, 2020, SPDR® Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) closed at $176.70. Three years later, it’s at $180.48. That’s…
happyphoton/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
Yuri_Arcurs/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
niphon/iStock via Getty Images The Conference Board just released the latest data on the leading economic indicators for the US economy and they still point to a recession. This aligns with our view that the stock market is in the midst of forming a large, four year trading range that will oscillate between 3,500 and…
MediaProduction/iStock via Getty Images As the past week closed, a number of interesting events came to pass over at the People’s Republic of China. The first was China’s largest private real-estate developer Country Garden missing a number of bond payments and posting guidance that it will likely post a record loss for the first six…
mdesigner125 Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.”…