JARAMA The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payrolls has averaged monthly gains of over 233k over the past year. By all standards, that is a healthy number, especially considering the federal funds rate has been above 5% over that same time period. However, a deeper look into the numbers may reveal the impact…
Luis Alvarez/DigitalVision via Getty Images Originally published on May 3, 2024 By SchiffGold The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better…
TERADAT SANTIVIVUT The US data calendar has been light to start the week. Today, the only release of note was the NFIB’s reading on small business sentiment. While the index was expected to tick up to 89.9 from 89.4 in February, it instead dropped to 88.5. That is the weakest reading since December 2012. Given…
Thomas Barwick/DigitalVision via Getty Images Stocks took a breather last week, as investors interpreted labor market data for March as too strong to allow the Fed to start lowering interest rates by June. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a small increase in the number of jobs available. The ADP report showed…
Monty Rakusen/DigitalVision via Getty Images The March US employment data were stronger than expected and lend support to the re-acceleration hypothesis and an extension of US exceptionalism. In Q1 24, nonfarm payrolls rose by an average of 276k. It was the strongest quarter in a year and compares with an average monthly job gain of…
Klaus Vedfelt And wages rose at a good clip too. It was the kind of jobs report we’d expect from an economy that is plugging along just fine, at growth rates that are above the long-run average, powered by consumers outspending inflation with gusto, especially on services, the government spending trillions it borrows hand-over-fist, and…
RichHobson Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March employment report which showed that the economy created 303,000 jobs in the month of March, well above consensus estimates. While the headline number isn’t everything when it comes to assessing the strength of the labor market and the overall economy, nothing in the March…
Hispanolistic/E+ via Getty Images The March jobs report came in at 303,000, which was significantly more than expected. Initial expectations had been for 200,000 jobs and FOMC hawks have been talking about no cuts this year, yet markets rallied. While the market initially sold off, it recovered shortly after the report. The headline unemployment number…
kate_sept2004/E+ via Getty Images March nonfarm payrolls printed a strong +303,000, significantly above the +214,000 consensus forecast, though it was not far from in line with the whisper number due to the strength in ADP Private Payroll report back on Wednesday. The 303k figure was the strongest monthly employment climb since May 2023, while February’s…
JLGutierrez By James Knightley The February Job Opening and Labour Turnover Statistics shows that there remains a large number of job vacancies out there, but the low quit rate implies they are not necessarily particularly attractive. Quit rates at current levels imply that labour market cost pressures will continue to cool, which should help to…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. The marquee event in the week ahead will be…
Dragon Claws/iStock via Getty Images By James Smith At the margin, the latest UK jobs report is slightly dovish for the Bank of England. The unemployment rate edged higher to 3.9%, with the usual caveat that there are still reliability question marks surrounding these numbers. Unfilled job vacancy numbers are falling steadily and are closing…
courtneyk Earlier today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the February nonfarm payroll report. The report showed that the economy generated 275,000 jobs in the month of February, which was stronger than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Part of the offset in the strong jobs report was the downward revisions of the…
SDI Productions/E+ via Getty Images U.S. job growth didn’t quite fall back to earth after soaring past estimates in both December and January. But downward revisions for prior months suggest growth may not be as strong as initially advertised. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that employers added 275,000 jobs in February, above estimates of…
sasirin pamai By James Knightley Fed’s Powell inclined to cut rates this year, but needs the data to justify it There was nothing particularly surprising within Fed Chair Powell’s prepared monetary policy testimony to Congress – which is pretty short in fairness – or the Q&A session. The main comments are that “the risks to…
RichLegg Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify The following is an abridged transcript The top story to look out for this week The February jobs report is due on Friday, with expectations for payrolls growth to ease back. January showed a whopping rise of more than 350,000 in nonfarm payrolls….
The IMF has also warned that AI could further broaden income and wealth inequality among countries. AI benefits and challenges would be key points of discussion at World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a cautionary statement, indicating that the proliferation of artificial intelligence (AI) could impact nearly 40%…
AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply. The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a “soft landing” is at hand. However, the decline in full-time employment suggests recession risks are higher than thought. To understand…
Mario13 By James Knightley Solid employment gains, low unemployment and sticky wages suggest no immediate need for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Nonetheless, the jobs market is cooling and the concentration of employment gains in sectors viewed historically as being lower paid and more part-time raises some concerns. We think the Fed will wait until May…
pcess609 Overview After gaining for the past couple of sessions to open the New Year, the dollar is mostly softer today. The yen is the main exception. The greenback was bid above the JPY144 area where chunky options expire today. Most emerging market currencies are also firmer though there are a few exceptions in Asia,…
For several different reasons, people working these jobs are likely to quit in 2024 in search of better jobs, despite decent pay. A new report from Payscale has revealed the top jobs people are likely to quit in 2024. According to research, the employees currently handling these jobs are looking to quit within 6 months,…
RichLegg According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 199k jobs were created in November, better than the +190k consensus, while private payrolls were up 150k, slightly under expectations. The unemployment rate fell from 3.9% to 3.7%, the lowest since July, as a large number of people entered the workforce. Big picture, the jobless rate…
Marat Musabirov ZipRecruiter (NYSE:ZIP) recently delivered an increase in revenue per paid employer, and continues to increase its R&D/net sales revenue. Moreover, taking into account new solutions offered to cope with the new jobs available for artificial intelligence tools and digital instruments, ZIP could see business growth coming. I did identify many risks coming from…
deepblue4you Jobs Friday is here again. The first Friday of every month brings us the widely-anticipated report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the health of the US labor market. It’s a useful set of data for showing us what sectors of the economy are adding more jobs, how many people with part-time work…
deepblue4you By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist After a very strong September number, payroll gains almost halved in October, tentatively confirming a softening labor market. The economy added 150,000 jobs last month, bringing payroll gains back in line with their previous downward trend. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, slightly below the threshold that would…
Despite the potential negative impacts of AI, Musk also believes that AI would be a force for good and could even serve as a great friend and companion to users. During a recent AI Safety Summit in London, Elon Musk had a one-on-one discussion with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak about the future of artificial…
As investors and analysts await the official jobs report for October, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields moved in opposite directions. US Treasury yields came in varied on Friday as investors wait on the jobs report for October for an indication of the labor market and the effect of interest rates. While the 2-year Treasury…
The Good Brigade/DigitalVision via Getty Images Teen employment was mostly flat to lower in September 2023. After seasonal adjustments, some 5,570,000 Americans Age 16 through 19 were counted as having jobs during the month, down 14,000 from August 2023’s level. As a percentage of the Age 16-19 population, the share of working teens dipped from…
Nastassia Samal Hiring picked up sharply in September, reversing signs of a cooling labor market. In September, the economy added 336,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, above the average gain of 267,000 over the previous 12 months. These payroll gains were nearly double consensus expectations of 170,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8% in…
Nikada Investors received some of the worst possible news they could have expected on Friday, 6 October 2023. The September 2023 jobs report featured employment numbers that were much higher than expected. While that’s something that would be considered good in the real world, in the world of Wall Street, it is bad news because…
style-photography What a powerful finish as the S&P 500 (SPX) (SPY) and the Nasdaq (NDX) (NASDAQ:QQQ) shook off early pre-market declines on Friday (October 6) as investors reacted to the robust jobs market report. I last held a Neutral view of the Nasdaq in my previous update, as I wanted to ascertain the robustness of…
sturti/E+ via Getty Images Ahead of the nonfarm payroll employment report for September 2023, U.S. Treasury yields increased sharply. The 10-year treasury (IEF) approached 5.0% earlier this week, only to back off. The jobs growth surge in September will likely push Treasury yields to multi-year highs. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000, compared to the 160,000…
TERADAT SANTIVIVUT Global jobs growth remained muted in August, according to PMI survey data. Job gains were largely limited to the emerging markets, where jobs growth hit a 12-year-high. Developed world job growth, in contrast, slowed to near-stagnation. Employment growth has cooled especially sharply in the US and Europe in recent months, having enjoyed a…
courtneyk/E+ via Getty Images The August jobs report released yesterday saw unemployment rise to 3.8%, the highest level in a year and a half. This reflects progress in rebalancing the labour market, which Fed Chairman Jay Powell said “remains incomplete” at the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium late last month. Here I take a closer…
The inflation and jobs data will play a crucial role in further market movements. On Tuesday, August 29, the US Treasury yields continued to fall as Wall Street investors awaited the key economic data that will provide fresh insights into the state of the overall US economy. Investors will get fresh insights into the inflation…
BBuilder This economic data template published by Briefing.com is a useful tool for preparing for the coming economic data each week. Here’s all the expected economic data for the week of 8/28/23 through 9/1/23. On Friday, September 1, ’23, the August nonfarm payroll report will be released and consensus expectations are looking for 160,000-180,000 net…
filmfoto/iStock via Getty Images The Jackson Hole symposium marks the end of summer just as much as the autumn equinox next month. It has been a tough few months for bond markets as yields have soared. For the US economy, which has proven more resilient than many, including Fed officials thought, and a sharp increase…
IBM, a pioneer in the field of technology and AI, has been making strategic moves to align with the evolving landscape of artificial intelligence and its impact on the workforce. In a recent interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”, IBM (NYSE: IBM) Chairman and CEO Arvind Krishna has revealed the potential impact of Artificial Intelligence…