Sean Pavone/iStock via Getty Images Real Estate Weekly Outlook U.S. equity markets advanced for a second week, while benchmark interest rates retreated from five-month highs after a critical slate of employment data showed perhaps the most definitive signs yet of a long-awaited cooldown in labor market trends. Foreshadowed by surprisingly “dovish” remarks from Fed Chair…
courtneyk Wednesday’s Fed decision was largely unsurprising. But the most important data point of the day came long before the Fed decision. The latest JOLTS report showed the lowest levels of quits since early 2018 when Core PCE inflation was around 2%. This is an interesting data point because the quit rate has tended to…
Klaus Vedfelt And wages rose at a good clip too. It was the kind of jobs report we’d expect from an economy that is plugging along just fine, at growth rates that are above the long-run average, powered by consumers outspending inflation with gusto, especially on services, the government spending trillions it borrows hand-over-fist, and…
Klaus Vedfelt One of the big lessons from the 2010-2020 environment was that headline payrolls could increase substantially without putting upward pressure on inflation. This can be confusing because there’s often an assumption that more jobs mean more demand and higher prices. But it’s more complex than that. Think of it like stock prices. Prices…
kate_sept2004/E+ via Getty Images March nonfarm payrolls printed a strong +303,000, significantly above the +214,000 consensus forecast, though it was not far from in line with the whisper number due to the strength in ADP Private Payroll report back on Wednesday. The 303k figure was the strongest monthly employment climb since May 2023, while February’s…
Marina Novitkaia/iStock via Getty Images The Consensus Expectations The BLS is set to report the labor market data for March on April 5th. These are the current consensus market expectations: March (Trading Economics) Essentially, the market expects a slowdown in non-farm job creation to 200K from 275K in February, and the unemployment rate to stay…
oatawa Friday’s payrolls data for February dispatched another upside surprise, reaffirming the now-consensus view that recession risk is low for the US economy. Hiring rose 275,000 last month, beating expectations – well above the consensus forecast of around 200,000. A closer look at the numbers, however, paints a mixed picture. As The Wall Street Journal…
Photography taken by Mario Gutiérrez./Moment via Getty Images Overview The US dollar (DXY, USDOLLAR) is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today’s CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more-resilient-than-expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November,…
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP increased at a 4.9% annualized rate in Q3, slightly below the previously reported 5.2% pace. The latest report from the United States Labor Department reveals a marginal increase in weekly jobless claims, with the number rising by 2,000 to 205,000 for the week ending December 16. While…
4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images As I write this Friday evening, e-commerce giant Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is seeing labour strikes across countries. This is hardly an isolated event. As I had mentioned recently in the context of the banner EV company Tesla (TSLA), which has faced its own discontent from labour in Sweden, industrial action is…
Zerbor/iStock via Getty Images By James T. Tierney, Jr. Recent labor agreements in the auto and airline industries spotlight the profitability conundrum facing US companies – and equity investors. Pricing power and cost containment are essential ingredients for companies looking to expand profit margins. We’ve seen this clearly in 2023, when some of the best-performing…
JLGutierrez As the new round of monetary policy decision is approaching, it is crucial to understand the rationale surrounding inflation dynamics in order to project future scenario probabilities for the S&P500 (SPX). The FED has been decoupling inflation into three main components that, while evaluated separately, are interwound in generating total inflation. The first element…
Despite the current AI Hollywood writers are not completely out of their fight with the use of AI. Some experts have shared some areas of concern. The Writers Guild of America recently signed a labor deal with Hollywood Studios, in what seems to be a victory for the Guild. The labor deal involves implementing guardrails…
William_Potter/iStock via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
supersizer Intro We wrote about Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAH) before the company’s first-quarter earnings announcement in May of this year where we were looking for a solid Q1 number to keep the year-to-date momentum going. Shares are up close to 17% since our previous commentary. Aveanna actually posted a marginal bottom-line beat in Q1…
Mario Tama Tesla, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), and other electric vehicle (EV) companies are striving for a competitive advantage, while Detroit automakers grapple with the looming threat of a paralyzing strike. BofA sees the possible strike as “almost guaranteed” per a report last week. As the industry grapples with the renewed power of labor, non-legacy automakers…