Adam Gault All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 (SP500) finished higher last week to end a three-week losing streak for the index that was instigated by fears of stalled progress on inflation and a “higher-for-longer” interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve. Reigniting investor enthusiasm were earnings reports from some of our largest technology…
Pobytov/E+ via Getty Images Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your…
Hispanolistic/E+ via Getty Images The March jobs report came in at 303,000, which was significantly more than expected. Initial expectations had been for 200,000 jobs and FOMC hawks have been talking about no cuts this year, yet markets rallied. While the market initially sold off, it recovered shortly after the report. The headline unemployment number…
MarsYu By Mike Larson, Editor-in-Chief, MoneyShow Mish Schneider, Chief Strategist at MarketGauge.com and Kenny Polcari, Chief Market Strategist at SlateStone Wealth share their take on stocks, sectors, commodities, and more. Transcript Mish Schneider’s Market View Larson – Hi there. I’m Mike Larson, Editor-in-Chief with MoneyShow. And I’m coming to you from the Las Vegas Money…
monsitj Financial markets have long been considered discounting mechanisms because of their tendency to move up or down in advance of real world economic developments they are supposed to reflect. Following the Great Financial Crisis, the Federal Reserve manipulated the discounting mechanism of the free market by reducing the cost of money to zero and…
champc With the month of February coming to an end this week, a majority of 2024 is still before us. As the year began, many strategists predicted up to six Fed Fund rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The first cut was anticipated to occur in March, but economic data and Federal Reserve commentary has…
DNY59 By Ryan J. Puplava Executive Summary In this article, I’ll cover some of the key stories of 2023 and then focus on the likelihood of a soft landing for the economy with a look at monetary policy, economic growth, the earnings outlook, and geopolitical risks. Monetary Policy In two years, the Fed raised rates…
Spencer Platt/Getty Images News When Birkenstock (NYSE:BIRK) went public in October of last year, I concluded that sandals were on sale, as shares fell by double-digit percentages coming out of the IPO gate. Despite this decline, while opening days are usually characterized by decent gains, valuations were still very demanding, likely the reason for caution…
xavierarnau By Andrea Deghi, Financial Sector Expert, Global Financial Stability Analysis Division, IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department; Fabio M. Natalucci, Deputy Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department; and Mahvash S. Qureshi, Assistant Director and Division Chief, IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department The commercial real estate sector has been under intense pressure globally as…
hansenn/iStock via Getty Images By Andrew Prochnow It’s been nearly 30 years since the Federal Reserve pulled off the last “soft landing” in the U.S. economy. Back in the mid-1990s, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates to fight inflation, much as it has done over the last couple of years. And once inflation was…
Bet_Noire By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist Federal Reserve policy rates are set to fall in 2024. However, clear evidence that inflation has been tamed likely needs to emerge before cuts can commence, likely around mid-year. While a smooth landing is still far from certain, rate cuts accompanied by recession avoidance would present a constructive…
DNY59 The New Year got off to a bit of a rocky start as major indices (DJIA, S&P 500® and Nasdaq Composite) ended lower for the first week of the year, marking the first down week after a 9-week winning streak. In the continued 2023 trend of “good news is bad news,” it was strong…
MicroStockHub Almost as if a switch was pressed, the NASDAQ Composite (COMP.IND) – which encapsulates almost all Nasdaq-listed stocks – collapsed 1.63% on the first day of trading from the highs of 2023. This was the 4th-worst start to a new year since 1972 and only the 5th time that a year started with a…
Watcom At the beginning of the year, I wrote a cautious article on the Western Asset/Claymore Inflation-Linked Opportunities & Income Fund (WIW), warning that a ‘higher for longer’ Federal Reserve may prove to be a headwind for the duration-heavy WIW fund. I also warned that the WIW fund will likely retest its October 2022 lows,…
Tinnakorn Jorruang Soft-landing has been promoted as a solution to the economy’s ills. Let me ask a simple question. Which ones does it solve? Dueling mandates There is nothing in the history of soft-landings that would make any of us think that the soft-landing strategy is a rabbit being pulled out of the hat to…
DNY59 It now appears that the economy is set for a soft landing, that is, a reduction in inflation while economic growth remains positive and avoids high unemployment rates or even a recession. Although soft landings resulting from when the Fed raises interest rates to avoid too high inflation are relatively rare, it looks now…
Maksim Labkouski Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy will be encouraged by an improved situation seen in October, with headline flash PMI rising to a three-month high. Future optimism also improved, in part due to hopes of interest rates having peaked, something which looks increasingly likely given a further cooling of inflationary…
In early 2024, NASA, along with Florida-based startup Lonestar and the Isle of Man, plans to send a payload to the Moon containing “data cubes” whose contents will be authenticated using blockchain technology when they return to Earth. In February 2024, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in collaboration with Lonestar, a…
DNY59 As we near the end of what has historically been the worst performing two months of the year for the stock market, and the pullback intensifies, the chorus of warnings from the bear camp grows louder. The economic data is perceived to be either too hot, suggesting interest rates will stay higher for longer,…
StockByM Real Estate Weekly Outlook U.S. equity markets slumped for a third-straight week while benchmark interest rates returned to the cusp of multi-decade highs after inflation data showed a modest reacceleration in price pressures driven by resurgent oil prices. The disappointing setback follows several quarters of goods-driven disinflation, which was needed to offset some hints…
G0d4ather Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Rob Isbitts and Matthew Tuttle return to discuss monitoring yields and why Fitch downgrading U.S. debt from AAA to AA+ is not that big of a deal (1:00). AI rally, rate hikes and what other shoes might drop (3:00). Extending bond duration, taking…