ariya j/iStock via Getty Images Don’t hope. Hope is for people who aren’t prepared. – Kareem Abdul-Jabbar THE MACRO VIEW The Weekly MACRO report should serve as a time to pause and reflect on the Bigger picture that is never as volatile and tumultuous as the everyday/weekly market scene. Given the frantic pace of the…
asbe/iStock via Getty Images Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Amrita Roy and Rob Isbitts are both bullish on gold and T-bills (0:25). Inflationary and deflationary tug of war, macro volatility and central banks piling into gold (1:25). Why liquidity is the glue that drives everything forward (5:00). This is…
SATOSHI’S THOUGHT PROCESS Have you ever wondered what it must have been like for Satoshi Nakamoto back in 2008 when he published the Bitcoin Whitepaper? Spending countless hours in solitude, meticulously writing the code that would bring the world its first-ever successful attempt at creating a truly decentralized monetary network, the first of which our…
The Good Brigade Overview My recommendation for Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL) is a buy rating, as I expect the business to continue benefiting from the current macro backdrop, and the recent commentary about strong demand going into February 2024 is a good sign of this. Management has also shown their capability to position the business…
dima_zel For investors who want to profit from an attractive combination of current income and attractive long-term growth, it is hard to beat dividend-growth stocks (SCHD) operating in booming industries. In this article, we will share three dividend stocks that we believe are poised to soar in the coming years thanks to being leading players…
lechatnoir Investors have been pouring money into US stocks. According to this week’s fund flow update from EPFR, equities received a massive $56 billion influx of capital – that is the biggest inflow since March of 2021, a period marked by intense fiscal stimulus along with an accommodative Federal Reserve. Today, the Effective Funds Rate…
hqrloveq/iStock via Getty Images Main Thesis/Background The purpose of this article is to discuss the current macro-environment of the market right now, with a specific focus on the implications for tax-exempt municipal ((muni)) bonds. This is top of mind for me for a few reasons. One, the bond market as a whole (including munis) had…
Bloomberg/Bloomberg via Getty Images Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:YUMC) is one of the leading Chinese restaurant chains. The company was spun off from Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) in 2016. Since the spin off, Yum China hasn’t done as well as some would have expected. While it is higher than its debut price, it is still…
Witthaya Prasongsin/Moment via Getty Images By Jan van Eck Let’s look at what to expect this year from the three major forces impacting the markets: monetary policy, government spending and global economic growth. Dear Fellow Investors, Our outlook for financial markets in 2023 was “sideways” and “40/60,” or overweight bonds. This strategy worked well until…
RTimages/iStock via Getty Images Most commentary about fintech company SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) focuses on “micro” issues, most typically some measure of its revenue and customer growth. I’m adding to the conversation by focusing on SoFi’s “macro” issues, namely: Demand – What are the growth rates of the products that SoFi is competing for? Supply – What…
Leonhard Simon/Getty Images News China EVs are a highly contested investment theme with extremely choppiness, which I believe ultimately ends in upside BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) (HK-1211) is one of the top relative outperformers in China’s landscape in calendar year 2023, where the majority of technology names capitulated 10-20% losses in another year where the Hang Seng…
Editor’s note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Amphion Research as a new contributor. It’s easy to become a Seeking Alpha contributor and earn money for your best investment ideas. Active contributors also get free access to SA Premium. Click here to find out more » Wongsakorn Dulyavit I like to find businesses that are…
Hispanolistic The US Dollar Index got off to a hot start in 2024. After falling below the 101 level for a moment during the holidays, the greenback has shot higher, above 102, near a key area of long-term support. Financial conditions loosened substantially from October amid rising stock prices, compressing credit spreads, lower interest rates,…
Stefan Sutka/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Although bullish from a long-term perspective, my fears that British firm Games Workshop (OTCPK:GMWKF) could fall victim to macro-related woes has thankfully not materialized in the circa 14 months since I first covered the company. Indeed, up over 85% in USD terms including dividends, the stock has significantly outperformed…
Mario Tama Citigroup (NYSE:C) looks very cheap, trading at around 0.6x P/TBV. However, the U.S. banking giant has traded at these distressed multiples for over a decade now, and investors are likely doubting that low valuation alone is a catalyst for upside. But it is not only the low valuation that is speaking for Citigroup:…
Just_Super All values are in USD unless noted otherwise. As its name suggests, the bread and butter of Lithium Royalty Corp. (OTCPK:LITRF, TSX:LIRC:CA) is royalty income. The LIRC portfolio comprises 34 royalty interests in 32 mining properties located in the Americas, Australia, and Europe. Dec 2023 Presentation This Canadian business began operations in 2018 and…
Ake Ngiamsanguan Overview My recommendation for Jamf Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:JAMF) is a buy rating as execution remains strong, as shown in the revenue, ARR, and earnings growth, despite the weak macro backdrop. The near-term growth might still be impacted by the weak macro; however, I think the long-term upside remains attractive. Note that I previously…
photobyphm Introduction I had a sell rating on Verizon (NYSE:VZ) in my previous article. At the time, my argument was that Verizon was in a precarious position in the competitive telecommunications industry. Unlike the company’s competitors, Verizon was reporting net customer number decline for both post-paid and pre-paid wireless customers for multiple quarters spanning about…
Dan Tapiero also shared insights into his bullish Bitcoin price prediction emphasizing on the cryptocurrency’s role as a monetary network and immutable, distributed ledger. Bitcoin has been flirting around $37,000 levels for a while and has left investors confused over what could be its next direction. Long-term investors continue to stay bullish over its future….
theasis Thesis Summary Alibaba Group Holding (NYSE:BABA) reported its Q3 earnings last week, and the stock sold off, approaching a 52-week low. However, Alibaba showed a promising trend in profitability while still focusing on new growth initiatives. Furthermore, I see at least three possible catalysts that could take the stock higher: money, power and macro….
TheaDesign November of 2023 saw a massive rally in risk assets and a large drop in Treasury yields. The S&P 500 index (SPX) and 10-year Treasury rates (GT10). (Bloomberg) This rally in risk assets and Treasury bonds can be traced back to two sets of macro announcements. In early November, there was a weak ADP…
deepblue4you Portfolio Manager Shawn Reynolds and Deputy Portfolio Manager Charlie Cameron discuss global resources, including macro headwinds, commodities’ performance, and why we have a positive outlook about the space moving forward. Transcript Natural Resources Update and Outlook, Q3 2023 Shawn Reynolds: Hi, it’s Shawn Reynolds here along with my colleague Charlie Cameron, and we’re here…
fcafotodigital/E+ via Getty Images The 2023 US GDP growth rate will likely verify much better than what analysts had been expecting. Strong consumer spending was of course the primary culprit, and not even more than 500 basis points of tightening in the Fed Funds target rate by the FOMC could disrupt quarterly economic expansion. Now,…
audioundwerbung I have recently initiated coverage of Linde plc (NYSE:LIN) in which I described my general thesis behind the company (Linde: Best Of Breed Defensive Growth Plus Hydrogen Upside Make It A Buy) and outlined some key points of interest that I advise investors to monitor over the next quarters. On October 26, Linde released…
michal-rojek M&A activity rumors involving Stratasys (NASDAQ:SSYS) have died down in recent weeks, with Nano Dimension’s (NNDM) offer off the table and the Desktop Metal (DM) deal rejected by shareholders. Stratasys also continues to show little interest in 3D Systems’ (DDD) advances, and the fall in 3D Systems’ stock has decreased the appeal of its…
Werawad Ruangjaroon The VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (NYSEARCA:SMOG) invests across renewable energy companies as well as leaders in related environmentally friendly technology. This is a segment that has grown significantly in recent years, but underperforming following what was a short-lived pandemic boom. Indeed, the latest headlines aren’t helping. Solar stocks within the SMOG portfolio…
ah_fotobox (Note: All amounts in the article are in EUR. At the current exchange rate, 1 EUR is around 1.05 USD.) Investment Thesis In line with the German real estate sector, Vonovia (OTCPK:VONOY) (OTCPK:VNNVF) has seen a significant share price depreciation since last year. Vonovia share price (Source: Seeking Alpha) I have been buying up…
jamesteohart/iStock via Getty Images Summary This post is to provide my thoughts on Capgemini (OTCPK:CAPMF) business and stock. I am recommending a hold rating as I await better visibility into the timing of growth reacceleration. While I am confident regarding the structural growth story of Capgemini, I believe the market is focused on the near-term…
Sundry Photography In the ever-evolving clean energy landscape, solar energy and battery storage have taken center stage, reaching beyond the well-known domain of electric vehicles (EV). Enphase Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) is among the key players, renowned for its expertise in developing batteries and microinverters tailored for businesses and consumers. Enphase Energy showcases remarkable adaptability amid…
Massimo Giachetti AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) has a pathway to deleveraging as attendance continues to recover, but it needs to avoid any bumps in the road. Company Profile AMC owns and operates movie theatres throughout the United States and Europe. The company generates revenue through ticket sales, food and beverage sales, and advertising. The company licenses…
gorodenkoff A Quick Take On Manhattan Associates Manhattan Associates, Inc. (NASDAQ:MANH) provides supply chain and inventory management software and related services to businesses worldwide. I previously wrote about MANH with a Hold outlook. Manhattan Associates, Inc. stock has performed quite well in the past year but looks pricey at its current level, and the company…
JHVEPhoto Investment action Based on my current outlook and analysis of Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), I recommend a hold rating. While I acknowledge that INTU is a big and stable business that has consistently compounded FCF over the years, I believe it is still under the mercy of near-term macro movements. In particular, the current macro weakness…
Andres Victorero The Invesco Ultra Short Duration ETF (NYSEARCA:GSY) and ETFs like it continue to be attractive picks in the current market. Employment data is so important to the current economic regime and to speculation around rates. The data has not been supportive of long-duration instruments, and in general there is no reason to take…
The US Treasury Yield has reached levels not seen since 2007 thereby denting the demand for riskier assets such as Bitcoin and altcoins. After a strong start to October and Q4 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped by 3% in the last 24 hours moving under $28,000. This happened amid some profit-taking as well as…
yorkfoto Introduction On September 24, I co-published an article with Brad Thomas on increasing risks in the real estate space. We focused on multi-family housing, which is one of the sectors seeing billions of dollars of inflows from investors. Despite being one of the healthiest segments, it is now seeing some serious cracks, as we’re…
PUGUN SJ The good news is that we are almost out of September, the worst month of the year for equities! The bad news is that we now enter the last week of September, the worst week of the year for equities. Nautilus Optuma So far this year, the S&P 500 has played out pretty…
Leonid Sukala I’ve been wanting to write an article about MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) for a while. This is one of my favorite companies and has been ever since they embarked on their Bitcoin strategy. I really admire the CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor. Why? I admire him for the courage and conviction he has to do…
Drew Angerer The Fed’s interest rate pause at its September meeting was widely expected by market participants, even as headline inflation inched up for the second consecutive month in August to 3.7%. The Fed has mentioned the potential lagged impacts of the monetary policy tightening, which likely held it back from raising the Fed funds…
Stefan Lambauer/iStock Editorial via Getty Images The Brazilian airline Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes (NYSE:GOL) enjoyed a highly favorable first half of 2023, benefiting from a macroeconomic landscape characterized by lower fuel prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a resurgence in passenger demand. In its recent Q2 report, the Brazilian low-cost carrier achieved noteworthy results across…
Vivien Killilea Bumble (NASDAQ:BMBL) is a major player in the growing online dating industry, with Bumble and Badoo apps being its major revenue drivers. The industry has seen a marked slowdown in the past year, with peer Match Group (MTCH) also struggling to win new paying customers to its freemium platforms. Revenue is driven by…
ferrantraite Thesis Banco Macro (NYSE:BMA) is one of the primary traditional banks in Argentina. It has the largest branch network in the country. The deposit composition is dominated by time deposits and saving accounts. Corporate bond issuance represents 5.1 % of company liabilities. On the other hand, the bank`s loan portfolio is focused on retail…
NanoStockk/iStock via Getty Images The logistics and warehouse automation space has certainly had its ups and downs over the last few years. While the pandemic significantly accelerated a lot of automation plans and gave what I believe will be a lasting boost to e-commerce, the reality is that many companies today are taking a more…
Bosca78 Japanese electric motor manufacturer Nidec (OTCPK:NJDCY)(OTCPK:NNDNF) has continued to test investor patience, even if many of the recent drivers of sentiment are outside of the company’s control. While Nidec local shares have risen about 5% since my last update, currency moves have worked against U.S. shareholders, driving a small loss, though the performance has…
MediaProduction/iStock via Getty Images As the past week closed, a number of interesting events came to pass over at the People’s Republic of China. The first was China’s largest private real-estate developer Country Garden missing a number of bond payments and posting guidance that it will likely post a record loss for the first six…
TadejZupancic We’re downgrading PayPal Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) to a hold this quarter; while we think macro weakness has been priced into the stock for the most part, we don’t see PayPal outperforming in the near-term due to current macro dynamics. We think the two metrics that’ll drive the stock’s outperformance would be an increase in…
Torsten Asmus I last wrote on the Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (NYSEARCA:IVOL) in June and since then I have been aggressively adding to my position. While the IVOL uses various derivatives, it is essentially a bet on 2-year US bond yields falling relative to 10-year inflation expectations from their current elevated…
hohl/E+ via Getty Images Thesis The Simplify Macro Strategy ETF (NYSEARCA:FIG) is a newly issued exchange traded fund. The vehicle was IPO-ed in 2022, and thus has a limited amount of historical data in terms of analytics and risk/reward metrics. As per its literature, the exchange traded fund: […] is a modern take on the…
Urupong Summary Ziff Davis (NASDAQ:ZD) operates as a digital media and Internet company. The Company provides a portfolio that includes brands in technology, entertainment, shopping, health, cybersecurity, and martech. I am recommending a buy rating for ZD as I think management has executed very well in this tough advertising environment (driving growth in certain sectors…
Andrii Yalanskyi The Industrials sector has been a quiet leader in 2023. While mega-cap tech-related stocks have been in the limelight and as the “Magnificent Seven” moniker went viral, boring transportation, aerospace, and other niches in the broad Industrials space have taken off over the last several months. One stock, Air Lease Corp (NYSE:AL), is…