imagedepotpro Dear readers, Last time I wrote an article on the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY), the index stood at 5,150 points. My view on the index had been short-term positive since November, mainly due to momentum, but because of a relatively expensive valuation at a forward P/E of nearly 21x, I remained medium to long-term bearish….
The SHRINKING Dollar YinYang “The road to Easy Street goes through the sewer.” – John Madden Interest rate concerns were already in focus as the equity markets digested what Powell and other Fed officials were saying—that they were walking back the dovish 3-cut outlook that was initially a 6-cut one. With the latest hot inflation…
monsitj In this article I outline how I will allocate the money in my retirement fund for the month of April. I will use the 10-month exponential moving average (EMA) and a relative strength ratio to determine where my money will go among four ETF choices: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) , Vanguard Extended Market…
marrio31 Investors heeding my “hold” rating on the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) in my last analysis “SPY: An Early Contrarian Opportunity” published on October, 10, 2023 benefited from substantial positive momentum, marked by a strong trailing support and relative strength. Anticipating a 10% return with low risk, they capitalized on SPY’s brief dip…
Laurence Dutton Investors are watching the underlying S&P 500 (SP500) stocks after the index returned ~25% in 2023. 2024 started with the index pulling back, presumably on profit-taking. The market is struggling to reconcile expectations of no less than six interest rate cuts this year. The news media is not responsible for rumors of 25…
Dilok Klaisataporn “Assume life will be really tough, and then ask if you can handle it. If the answer is yes, you’ve won.” – Charlie Munger It’s a new year, investors have changed the page on the calendar, and now we’ll see if they have also changed their mindset when it comes to the equity…
Torsten Asmus For the past 12 months, the general investing public has been force fed an insane amount of excessive fear spread by newsletter writers, bloggers and the media alike, people with vested interests in seeing lower stock prices. And unfortunately, a lot of people missed out on the rally off the late 2022 bottom,…
tadamichi The S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) had a nice move higher in 2023, gaining about 25%. However, the market doesn’t increase without corrections along the way. Even 2023 had two 10% corrections between February and March and again between July and October before the end of year rally higher. The market is dropping from an overbought…
monsitj In this month’s article, I outline why I will maintain my position of having 100% of my pension plan assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY). I will not have a cash position. First, let me review my pension plan performance in December. The market, as measured by the S&P 500 index,…
RichVintage The S&P 500’s (SPY) nearly daily march higher since Oct. 30, 2023, frustrated perpetual bears. Investors who bought puts to either bet against the market or hedge its rise are at a disadvantage. Those who earned as much as 5.6% in risk-free money market funds are similarly unhappy. Yields on Schwabb’s Value Advantage Money…
NicoElNino Fed Policy: Long and Variable Lags In early June, we examined the performance of stocks relative to bonds to see what we could learn about the soft versus hard landing question. At that time, the stock/bond ratio was siding with the soft-landing scenario, which thus far has been the case. Since we know Fed…
buradaki “There is no better teacher than history in determining the future… There are answers worth billions of dollars in a $30 history book.” – Charlie Munger The investment backdrop today is one where market participants have put off worries about the budget deficit and the other fundamental issues that plague the US and Global…
roobcio/iStock via Getty Images By now we all know about “up on Monday, down on Tuesday,” but do we really know that it’s still true? Taking advantage of that means that you need to enter on the close of the previous day. However, when I enter a trade it’s usually on the open, so I…
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images “A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments.” – Charlie Munger In conversations about the economy over the last several months, we’ve discussed how the current macro backdrop has been among the most difficult to make sense of that I can ever remember….
Kemter Dear readers, I haven’t been particularly bullish on the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) for reasons outlined in my last article on the index. I simply think that the index is too expensive relative to historical averages. This makes for a poor risk reward with sub-par potential returns and a substantial downside if we get some…
monsitj In this month’s article, I outline why I will reverse last month’s decision and return to having 100% of my pension plan assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY). I will not have a cash position. First, let me review my pension plan performance in November. The market, as measured by the…
marrio31 Investors have seemingly accepted the narrative of a soft landing with a face-ripping rally in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) over the past couple of weeks. As the following chart highlights, SPY has enjoyed a euphoric rise of nearly 10% since October 27th. Data by YCharts This has pushed the year-to-date gains back…
martin-dm/E+ via Getty Images Investment thesis From the secular point of view, I am a big fan of the U.S. stock market because it has a stellar growth history over the long term. But past profits are not a guarantee of future success, especially if we talk about the foreseeable future. The current environment is…
Adam Gault The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a rare event that hasn’t been witnessed since 1949: a shrinking money supply. M2 has declined by a whopping ~$700 billion since the hiking cycle began. This phenomenon is sparking discussions and debates about its causes, implications, and effects on various financial instruments, including the SPDR® S&P…
wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images All the world’s a stage and most of us are desperately unrehearsed.”― Seán O’Casey It seems every time you believe 2023 can’t possibly get more bizarre, some unknown deity says ‘hold my beer‘. Last week, we saw the position of Speaker of the House be vacated for the first time in…
John Kevin After the Fed’s last meeting, the “higher-for-longer” mantra pushed interest rates higher and equity markets lower. At the moment of writing, the ten-year nominal treasury yield has hit 4.75%, the highest point since August 2007. U.S. Generic Government 10-Year Yield (Bloomberg Terminal) However, even more important than nominal yields are real yields. A…
David Baileys “Humankind cannot bear very much reality.” – T.S. Eliot As the data continues to flow in, third-quarter GDP growth is ranging from the Atlanta GDP Now forecast of 4.9% to the St.Louis Fed Nowcast of 1.6% or the NY Fed Nowcast of 2.2%. Unless there is a change, Q3 GDP growth is going…
primeimages In this month’s article, I outline why I will keep 100% of my pension plan assets invested in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY). I will have no cash position. First, let me review my pension plan performance in September. The market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, lost 4.87% for the month,…
Torsten Asmus S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) was down for 3 straight days after the Fed’s meeting. Fed just announced their most recent assessment of the economy, and we believe there are a few points that investors should consider for the management of their portfolios in 2024. 1. Fed Shifts Attention from Inflation to Unemployment While Fed…
bfk92/iStock via Getty Images There are three FOMC meetings left in 2023. The market currently prices very low odds of a hike at the September or December meeting and instead places the highest chances for a hike at the meeting after next in November. Many bears are hoping for a hike or two after inflation…
Jan-Otto/iStock via Getty Images “The surprise is that you continue to be surprised.” … Jill A. Davis The early bounce in the markets to start the year got a boost in May. The ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ myth proved to be just that—a myth. Stronger-than-expected economic data, AI Mania, slowing inflation, and hopes…
DjordjeDjurdjevic We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways. -Barton Biggs. There are a lot of angry bears today. I get it. Frankly, I’ve been in their position many times. You are positioned for a data release. The data came out, and your call…
Rawf8 Two major negative events hit the S&P 500 (SP500) this week: 1) crude oil spiked over the resistance as Brent Crude Oil crossed the $90/barrel mark, and 2) the Chinese government announced plans “to expand a ban on the use of iPhones to government-backed agencies and companies”. Both of these events are related, as…
Kameleon007 “Your mind is like a parachute: If it isn’t open, it doesn’t work.” – Buzz Aldrin There are many aspects of navigating the financial markets that offer little to no value to an investor. Perhaps there is no bigger one than arguing about whether it’s a BULL or BEAR market. For one thing, these…
Astrid Stawiarz The SPDR® S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is overvalued in our view and likely to underperform its historical performance average in the coming years. Moreover, it faces a plethora of potential negative catalysts that could further hamper total return performance in the near future. In this article, we will compare and contrast our…
Parradee Kietsirikul Bears Control Short-Term Trend The S&P 500 established a new uptrend following the October 2022 low by making a series of higher highs and higher lows. The anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) chart below shows buyers remain in control of the longer-term trend. A sustained break of the region near 4090 would…
Userba011d64_201/iStock via Getty Images Volatility Is A Normal Part of All Trends The S&P 500 (SPX) gained a lot of ground after a May 30 article noted multiple-sector strength says S&P 500 could move higher. All trends have countertrend moves, which means red days/givebacks are normal and to be expected. CCM / Stockcharts.com Distracted By…