PMI Often Cries Wolf | Seeking Alpha

Maks_Lab Many consider the PMI a key economic indicator. It is not. It correlates with market psychology and market prices, not economics. The history from 1977 shows clearly that dips in the SP500 are highly correlated with PMI (Manufacturing) declines below the -50 benchmark level. But the PMI has declined below its benchmark roughly three…

Read More

PMI Comment Trackers Data Reveal Europe Hardest Hit By Red Sea Crisis

General_4530/Moment via Getty Images January’s global PMI data signalled improving global economic conditions at the start of 2024, in addition to a brightened outlook, with the sun shining especially brightly upon the financial services sector amid a loosening of financial conditions. However, further improvements hinge largely on the outlook for global interest rates and inflation….

Read More

Japan’s Flash PMI Points To Stalling Private Sector Economy At Start Of Fourth Quarter

Ca-ssis October’s flash PMI data revealed that Japan’s private sector economy concluded the eight-month growth streak that commenced in January 2023. This was attributed primarily to a sharper fall in manufacturing production, though services activity growth also slowed to the weakest in the year-to-date. At the same time, forward-looking indicators outlined the likelihood for further…

Read More

Global PMI Data Hints At Stubborn Inflation

solidcolours/iStock via Getty Images The Global PMI data – compiled by S&P Global across over 40 economies and sponsored by JPMorgan – showed average prices charged for goods and services continuing to rise at an elevated rate by historical standards in August. Although some cooling in service sector inflation was evident, rising wage pressures combined…

Read More

Durable Goods Vs. PMI… Something Is Amiss

Vitalij Sova Manufacturers’ New Orders for Durable Goods and the PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) for manufacturers were reported last week. Durable Goods Orders vs. PMI compares these two series monthly from Feb 1982. The rule of thumb which has been repeated many times is that when the PMI falls below 50, it forecasts recessions. This…

Read More