Chinese authorities have kicked off plans to sell Rmb1tn ($140bn) of long-dated bonds, as Beijing ramps up spending to stimulate the economy. The People’s Bank of China has asked brokers for advice on pricing the sale of the first batch of the sovereign bonds, according to two people who received requests. China’s government announced plans…
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article warned to get “Ready for the Squeeze” and concluded there are “good odds of a move higher” in the S&P500 (SPY). This played out to a point, but the move higher exceeded my expectations and now looks more than just a short squeeze. Wednesday’s session had a chance to form a…
gremlin Luminar Technologies (NASDAQ:LAZR) was one of the highest valuation stocks when the EV hype was at its peak. The stock has crashed back down to earth and is close to all-time lows. This is happening at a time when the company is finally about to bring an actual product out to market. Given that…
cemagraphics An eventful week ended in little net movement – the S&P500 (SPY) closed just +28 points higher. However, the combination of a dovish FOMC and softer labor market readings did help drive a strong Thursday and Friday. The lack of a further rally could simply be a case of stopping the clock on the…
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article was titled “Capitulation” and speculated that the S&P500 (SPY) had made a short-term bottom at the futures low of 4924. It concluded, “5048-5050 is the initial target, but should eventually break for 5108.” That largely played out as the high of the week came in at 5114. However, this was likely…
cemagraphics Escalations in the Israel/Iran conflict ensured the “new phase” in the S&P500 highlighted in last weekend’s article continued lower as expected. The break of 5048-56 suggests a large correction should eventually target an undercut of 4818. While this is a useful medium-term expectation, it leaves a lot of unanswered questions in the near-term. Perhaps…
MCCAIG Since late February, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury has moved up from just under 3.9% to 4.62% as of Friday’s close. Hope for cuts to the Fed Funds rate have continuously been pushed off throughout 2024, and it is now possible that no rate cuts take place during the year. Last week, Goldman…
cemagraphics It’s been two weeks since my last article, and there have been some significant developments. On the macro side, “higher for longer” rate expectations are back and the first cut is now expected in September rather than June or July. On the technical side, the S&P 500 (SPY) has finally broken its trend channel…
cemagraphics The S&P500 (SPY) ended Q1 and the month of March at 5254. It has gained 28% in less than six months and now has a PE ratio of 24.6. How can anyone buy this high?! Actually, it’s not that difficult; the key is to blank out how overvalued you think it may be, or…
cemagraphics The S&P 500 (SPY) made another decisive break higher this week. This follows several weeks of stalling and a shift in market behaviour (lower weekly closes, weaker action on Fridays) which failed to deliver a decisive breakdown. As last weekend’s article concluded, “The charts show indecision rather than a strong signal either way…the odds…
Ultima_Gaina When I initiated my bullish view on Arista Networks (NYSE:ANET) in January 2015, their stock price was only $16.32. Since I published the second piece in June 2023, their stock price has surged by another 94.8%. The company has been gradually appreciated by investors, as evidenced by their rising stock price. They completed the…
gopixa Financial theory suggests that there is a limit to how high passive investing can get as a percentage of total investing before it breaks the market, but no one knows exactly where that threshold is. Meanwhile, passive share (the percentage of assets invested passively) continues to set all-time highs, inching ever closer to that…
cemagraphics The S&P500 (SPY) made a lower high this week for only the second time since the rally started back in October 2023 and the first time since the week of 2nd January. This is another shift in behaviour to add to those outlined in last weekend’s article and there is growing evidence the bulls…
cemagraphics The S&P 500 (SPY) worked its way to another new all-time high of 5189 this week, just above the Fibonacci target of 5179 outlined in my last article. To be honest, I nearly shut down my screens early on Friday as it surged higher – after all, 16 out of the last 18 weekly…
bjdlzx Spartan Delta (OTCPK:DALXF) is a Canadian company that reports in Canadian dollars. Last year, the company issued a big dividend that effectively ended the main project. Now management is touting that accomplishment while starting another growth project to go after large gains again. That makes this an atypical company not suited for income investors….
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article detailed a “Window for a Reversal” for the S&P500 (SPY) after it tested the 5107-12 target. It’s tempting to get carried away when a market stops exactly where you thought it would and drops 50 points, but there were two key things needed to confirm a reversal – a break of…
Yuichiro Chino/Moment via Getty Images The S&P 500 (SPY) blew off to new all-time highs this week, mirroring the projections outlined in last weekend’s article. Not only did the index “take a step back on Tuesday’s re-open and drop to test the 4950-60 area,” it then rebounded to the target area at “the cluster of…
cemagraphics The S&P500 (SPY) has finally done it – a break to new all-time highs following the 2023 break-outs of the Nasdaq (QQQ) and Dow Jones (DJI). Furthermore, it did so against a backdrop of rising yields and falling odds of a March cut. But is this just a “fake-out” to squeeze out bears, or…
shih-wei Markets appear to be taking a sober second look at when the U.S. Federal Reserve may be ready to start cutting interest rates, with March looking increasingly less likely. Scott Colbourne, Head of Active Fixed Income at TD Asset Management, discusses the factors keeping inflation sticky and what it means for monetary policy. Transcript…
PhonlamaiPhoto Potential has a shelf life.”― Margaret Atwood, Today, we put American Battery Technology Company (NASDAQ:ABAT) in the spotlight. The company came public late in 2020. Like most IPOs/SPACs that debuted in 2020/2021 in this space when interest rates were basically zero, the stock has destroyed a massive amount of shareholder value to date. Competitor…
cemagraphics The S&P 500 (SPY) exceeded the 2023 peak this week and the reversal pattern pointed out in last weekend’s article failed. Technical analysis identifies what the major market-moving participants are doing. If they are on holiday, like they were at the December peak, the signals are less reliable. This article will look at what…
monsitj The S&P 500 (SPY) made a 16.8% rally in just forty two sessions into the 27th December high. Amongst the euphoria and holiday cheer dovish expectations got excessive – according to the CME Fedwatch tool markets assigned a 73.8% chance of a 25bps cut in the March FOMC meeting, and a questionable 16% chance…
Francesco Scatena/iStock via Getty Images My regular readers know this already, but newer ones might not. Before I began writing here on Seeking Alpha, I was a commercial real estate developer. I spent over two decades in the trenches literally learning how to create value “from the ground up.” My first job out of college…
Photon-Photos/iStock via Getty Images Just over six months ago, I wrote on NovaGold Resources Inc. (NYSE:NG), noting that the stock’s relative valuation remained unattractive with it trading at a premium to developers (and even some producers) that controlled their own destiny, were takeover targets, and many that were already in construction/production. Since then, NovaGold has…
cemagraphics The S&P500 (SPY) has made a new high for the year of 4609, exceeding July’s peak of 4607. This is not something I expected when I proposed a large bounce could develop from 4103, but the price action of the rally has been telling a bullish story and I have listened. Last week’s article…
cemagraphics Holiday season is underway and the S&P 500 (SPY) is approaching the 2023 high after the fourth best November performance ever. Meanwhile, the 10Y yield has broken back below the significant level of 4.32% (the 2022 high) and markets have discounted around 100bps of Fed cuts next year. Goldman Sachs pointed out “the month…
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article was titled “FOMO Top,” and as you may guess, it got this week’s moves in the S&P500 (SPY) completely wrong. I should have stayed bullish instead of trying to anticipate a correction. In my defence, I did state “closing below 4393 should signal the beginning of the reversal,” which never happened…
DariaRen Here’s a table thrown up every few weeks to show readers how the quarterly “bottom-up” S&P 500 EPS growth rates are being revised, as well as expected S&P 500 revenue growth rates for forward quarters. Readers should not panic about the negative EPS revisions in the last few weeks. I do think the trimming…
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article outlined a strong case for a continuation of the S&P 500 (SPY) rally and concluded “4325-34 should initially hold dips for a target of 4402, perhaps 4415.” This was pretty much what happened as the weekly low came in at 4344 and the high on Friday was 4418. The S&P500 has…
ferrantraite Introduction I’ve been following U.S. residential homebuilder Landsea Homes (NASDAQ: LSEA) closely and I’ve written six articles about the company on SA so far. The latest of them was in August 2023 and in it I said that the Q2 2023 results were strong but that the Q3 2023 guidance looked weak. On November…
cemagraphics What a difference a week can make. Especially when there’s a 5.8% gain and the best performance of the year. Bulls held the critical 4100 level and the recovery soon turned into a stampede. The S&P500 (SPY) closed higher every session for the first time since November 2021. To be honest, on Monday morning…
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article warned the S&P500 (SPY) was at “Risk of Collapse” based on numerous bearish technical signals. Perhaps “collapse” isn’t the best way to describe what happened next, but the action sure wasn’t bullish. The most watched chart indicator of them all, the 200-day moving average, has been convincingly broken. As the market…
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article was titled “Make or Break,” and based on this week’s performance, the S&P 500 (SPY) is taking the latter option. An October reversal was developing but bulls failed to step in at higher lows and cowered in fear as the weekend approached. Friday’s close was ominous. One small positive is that…
ryasick Over the past quarters, I have posted a lot of negative stuff about Realty Income (NYSE:O) here on Seeking Alpha as well as on YouTube. In short, there are 5 things that I dislike about the company: Issue #1: The REIT is getting too big for its own good and this will likely hurt…
cemagraphics Last weekend’s article was titled “Bulls Have the Ball,” and this was certainly the case for the S&P 500 (SPY) in the first half of the week. Monday’s recovery and higher close were key and followed the expectations set out for a counter-intuitive move following the Israel news: “4260-70…could set the low of the…
cemagraphics Last week’s article attempted to answer the question “is the bottom in?” and concluded in all likelihood it wasn’t: “the weak September close and the usual pattern of a lower low in October means a drop to 4200 at the 200dma and the break-out area is more probable.” The S&P500 (SPY) has now made…
cemagraphics The S&P 500 (SPY) was set up for a possible crash this week, but as explained in my last article, an initial collapse was expected to reverse again. A failed bearish pattern is often a good buying opportunity. Late on Wednesday, price bounced strongly off the channel shown below and the recovery to 4333…
cemagraphics The S&P500 made its largest weekly decline since March this week as the contracting pattern broke out. This was fully prepared for in last week’s article which called for “a burst of volatility (FOMC meeting induced?)” and a test of 4335. Next week will be very interesting. The final part of the scenario laid…
designer491 Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify Rob Isbitts shares why the stock market has been resilient; T-Bills’ tough competition (0:35) the salient 10 year yield (9:30) and bright spots in oil and uranium. Transcript Rena Sherbill: All right. So it’s September 20th. How are you looking at the markets?…
cemagraphics Another inside week traded in the S&P 500 (SPY) as the sideways range continued and contracted. This is frustrating action but can’t continue indefinitely and we should see range expansion this week. The question is, which way will it break? Last week’s article highlighted the bias for a break lower past 4430. Obviously, this…
cemagraphics Last week’s article called for the S&P500 (SPY) rally to fade and drop to around 4415 which nearly played out with this week’s decline to 4430. However, Thursday’s low does not necessarily mark the bottom of this move. The title of this week’s article, ‘It’s not over,’ refers both to the probability of further…
cemagraphics Two weeks have passed since my last article, and the key level of 4325 highlighted back then should have kept readers on the right side of the S&P 500’s (SP500) recent rally. Given the recovery and the strong end to August, the focus is now on whether we can look for direct new highs…
With a robust operational history and an efficient Ethereum Virtual Machine launched earlier this year in April, EOS has established itself as a trusted platform for developers in the crypto industry. The EOS Network Foundation (ENF) has secured regulatory approval for the trading of EOS tokens on regulated cryptocurrency exchanges in Japan. The Japan Virtual and…
A_Melnyk Investment Thesis Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR) is like a two-in-one deal for those seeking to get in on the booming cannabis business while still enjoying the safety of regular income. The business model is simple: buying a property and getting rent. What is unique about IIPR is that it leases the property to cannabis…
cemagraphics The S&P 500 (SPY) accelerated lower this week, breaking potential supports along the way and undoing all of July’s gains. Admittedly, my 4448-4458 target for this pullback was off the mark. However, as I’ve mentioned before, levels on a chart are only one part of technical analysis; evaluating and reacting to price action is…
cemagraphics Last week’s article called for a drop in the S&P500 (SPY) to test 4448-58. Considering this week’s low was 4444, it wasn’t a bad call. However, I won’t pretend I ‘nailed’ the market. The sequence of failed rallies and new lows was a challenge to trade and I expected a larger recovery into the…
pidjoe On Thursday, August 3, 2023, international electric utility The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) announced its second quarter 2023 earnings results. At first glance, these results appeared to be somewhat disappointing, as the company missed the expectations of its analysts in terms of both revenues and earnings. The stock market was also not particularly impressed with…
cemagraphics The S&P 500 (SPY) fell to a low of 4474 this week after Fitch downgraded the US credit rating. While this was a surprise catalyst, the pullback was no surprise at all and met the expectations set out in last week’s article, and indeed the week before, which called for “the largest pullback since…