Monty Rakusen Eric Oak of the Supply Chain Insights team co-authored this report The Biden administration announced a new round of tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from mainland China, including a more than three-fold increase in the Section 301 tariff rate for Chinese steel imports. Given the upcoming US elections in November, the…
ValeryEgorov Step One: Wide-moat stocks with 5-star and 4-star ratings Historical evidence says that while quality alone is a poor indicator of outperformance, when combined with a decent valuation filter, Morningstar’s moat rating proves to be more than useful. Based on the available data, stocks with a wide-moat rating that also fit into the 4-…
Morsa Images By Charlie Choi & Samuel Wilamowsky US housing has weathered surging mortgage rates. Thin inventory and pent-up demand could create opportunity. The US housing market continues to defy traditional notions about rising rates. Across much of the US, prices have been resilient, even as mortgage rates have climbed to 20-year highs. For those…
Pgiam Investment Thesis Hingham Institution for Savings (NASDAQ:HIFS) is in my opinion one of the finest financial establishments in the U.S. The bank has outstanding asset quality thanks to a laser focused approach to risk management and mitigation. The bank has also historically been one of the best performing financial institutions in the U.S. with…
Richard Drury I last covered the Avantis U.S. Large Cap Value ETF (NYSEARCA: AVLV) in early 2023. In that article, I argued that AVLV’s diversified holdings, cheap valuation, and good performance track-record, made the fund a buy. AVLV has marginally outperformed the S&P 500 since, slightly underperforming my expectations. AVLV Previous Article I remain bullish…
Eoneren By James Knightley US inflation remains hot, but not as hot as feared So the core PCE deflator has indeed come in at 0.3% month-on-month, with upward revisions to January and February, rather than the 0.48% MoM implied by the quarterly PCE deflator from yesterday, assuming no revisions. In the great scheme of things,…
Darren415 By James Knightley Higher inflation catches the markets’ eye, rather than weaker growth US first quarter GDP growth is an annualised 1.6%, well below the 2.5% consensus expectation, but inflation is hotter with the core PCE deflator up 3.7% annualised versus 3.4% expected. This suggests, assuming no revisions to monthly data, that the core…
Matteo Colombo Transcript We saw 2024 as a year of two stories: First, cooling inflation and strong earnings would support upbeat risk appetite. Next, inflation would rollercoaster back up and disrupt sentiment. Recent inflation data suggest inflation isn’t cooling as quickly as we expected, implying that the second phase may be happening now. We think…
RapidEye/iStock via Getty Images Gauzy Is Growing But Producing High Operating Losses Gauzy Ltd. (GAUZ) has filed to raise $75 million in an IPO of its ordinary shares, according to an SEC F-1 registration statement. Gauzy provides light and vision control technologies for various end-user industries and environments. While top-line revenue growth has been impressive,…
Monty Rakusen United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) is in the news again after President Joe Biden stated the firm would remain “American owned,” promising that a foreign sale will not be allowed for as long as he’s in power. We covered U.S. Steel a few months ago, before the Nippon (OTCPK:NPSCY) merger agreement. Our analysis…
MoMo Productions By James Knightley Retail sales beat all expectations US retail sales rose a very robust 0.7% month-on-month in March versus 0.4% expected, with only one forecaster predicting this outcome out of 64 analysts. February’s growth rate was revised up to +0.9% from +0.6% MoM with March strength led by non-store retailers (+2.7% MoM),…
Richard Drury By James Knightley Ongoing strength means a June rate cut looks unlikely The US economy continues to show remarkable resilience in the face of high borrowing costs, tight credit conditions and a weak external backdrop. It appears on course to grow at a 2.5% annualised rate in the first quarter. We already know…
Ingenious Buddy Three IPOs debuted this past week. Three IPOs and one SPAC submitted initial filings this week. Product assessment services provider UL Solutions (ULS) priced its upsized IPO above the midpoint to raise $946 million at a $5.7 billion market cap. UL Solutions provides testing, inspection, and certification (TIC) services and related software and…
by sonmez Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify New PFAS limits in drinking water renew compliance cost fears. (00:33) DoJ opens probe into Nippon Steel’s deal for US Steel (X). (02:34) TikTok (BDNCE) divestiture timeline might undergo extension in U.S. Senate: report. (03:23) This is an abridged transcript of the…
Eoneren By James Knightley, Chief International Economist US inflation remains too hot for comfort US core consumer price inflation came in at 0.4% month-on-month, above the 0.3% consensus – only one forecaster predicted such an outcome, so just like last Friday’s jobs report, this is another significant upside surprise that should quash expectations of a…
naphtalina Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is positioned well for long-term success, and it is also vital for U.S. defense tasks, which both add security in the immediate future for recurring revenue stability but also lead to some potential vulnerabilities in the case of larger wars and defense demands. I consider the investment to be a…
At the Bitcoin Policy Summit in Washington DC today, U.S. Congressman Patrick McHenry (R-NC) emphasized the importance of the United States taking a leadership role in Bitcoin and not lagging behind in during a fireside chat with Club for Growth President David McIntosh. JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Congressman Patrick McHenry says the US needs to be a leader in #Bitcoin…
Trevor Williams Navigating market highs and (avoiding) value traps Last quarter, the S&P 500 Index hit a new high every month, as did each of our U.S. Funds. In March, I wrote a piece for our website discussing why new highs are important to us. On one of the recent new high days, I heard…
wimagine/iStock via Getty Images Fundamentals The discussions within the BRICS bloc about creating an alternative payment system signify a significant geopolitical shift with far-reaching economic implications. Led by Russia, this move underscores a growing desire among emerging economies to reduce dependence on the United States and the dollar-dominated financial infrastructure. The BRICS bloc, now expanded…
TERADAT SANTIVIVUT US economic output is still on a path for a materially softer pace of growth in the first quarter GDP report scheduled for release at the end of this month. The expansion will be strong enough to minimize recession risk, but the deceleration in the trend via GDP data will remain conspicuous for…
JLGutierrez By James Knightley The February Job Opening and Labour Turnover Statistics shows that there remains a large number of job vacancies out there, but the low quit rate implies they are not necessarily particularly attractive. Quit rates at current levels imply that labour market cost pressures will continue to cool, which should help to…
Tran Van Quyet/iStock via Getty Images A month ago, we wrote an article titled, “U.S. Oil Production Report Out With Far More Questions Than Answers.” The gist of the article was that if we added adjustment to U.S. oil production, total crude supplies in December came out to 13.719 million b/d. We wrote at the…
Get ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha’s Stocks to Watch, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming IPOs, investor days, earnings reports and conference presentations. The marquee event in the week ahead will be…
JasonDoiy/iStock via Getty Images By Arthur Jones, Senior Director, Global Research and Strategy The U.S. multifamily housing sector faces challenges from both overdevelopment and capital market pressures, with ongoing issues anticipated through 2025. However, solid macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained demand, particularly from younger generations favoring rentals, offer potential opportunities in the medium term for well-capitalized…
Martin Barraud/OJO Images via Getty Images It happened again in February 2024. The size of the U.S. new home market as measured by its market capitalization shrank for the fifth month in a row. Political Calculations’ initial estimate of the size of the new home market cap in February 2024 is $26.38 billion. This estimate…
jimfeng Investing in Canada’s stock market, as opposed to the U.S. market, offers a unique opportunity for diversification and exposure to robust sectors such as natural resources, energy, and mining, which are cornerstones of the Canadian economy. Canada is home to a substantial number of high-yield dividend stocks, particularly within these industries, which can be…
2d illustrations and photos Four IPOs priced this past week, joined by one SPAC. After upping its terms at the start of the week, chipmaker Astera Labs (ALAB) priced above the raised range to raise $713 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. Astera offers its Intelligent Connectivity Platform, which comprises semiconductor-based connectivity products and…
Andrii Yalanskyi/iStock via Getty Images By Hyun Kang U.S. equities don’t have a monopoly on acronyms. Before there was the Magnificent 7, it was the FAANGs. Europe has been consistently ignored by U.S. investors over the lack of its own basket of tech-enabled, high-growth stocks. Goldman Sachs (GS) recently highlighted a basket of 11 European…
AsiaVision/E+ via Getty Images Suke Is An IPO To Stay Away From Suke Limited (SUKE) has filed to raise $10 million in an IPO of its ordinary shares, according to an SEC F-1 registration statement. Suke provides digital media and related shopping and ecommerce services in Malaysia. Given that the Suke Limited IPO is priced…
Sundry Photography Over a year ago, I published “U.S. Bancorp: Net Interest Margin Compression Could Quickly Erase Profits This Year.” At that time, I had a bearish view on U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) under the view that its moderately high leverage combined with rising deposit rates would cause its NIM to compress, causing the company to…
honglouwawa Prices reflect near perfection, yet today’s world is particularly imperfect and dangerous. 1) The U.S. Market Well, the U.S. is really enjoying itself, if you go by stock prices. A Shiller P/E of 34 (as of March 1st) is in the top 1% of history. Total profits (as a percent of almost anything) are…
oatawa Friday’s payrolls data for February dispatched another upside surprise, reaffirming the now-consensus view that recession risk is low for the US economy. Hiring rose 275,000 last month, beating expectations – well above the consensus forecast of around 200,000. A closer look at the numbers, however, paints a mixed picture. As The Wall Street Journal…
SlavkoSereda/iStock via Getty Images This article talks about how money moved around in different parts of the US in February 2024 and how it could impact the markets in March 2024. This is important because when the amount of money going into the economy changes, it takes about a month before it affects the stock…
CHUNYIP WONG Primega Is Growing Slowly And Operating Results Are Declining Primega Group Holdings Limited (PGHL) has filed to raise $8.75 million in an IPO of its common shares, according to an SEC F-1 registration statement. Primega provides construction transportation services for materials use and disposal and ancillary services. PGHL is producing slow growth from…
cbarnesphotography By Fei Wang Chinese investors tend to exhibit high exposure to domestic equities. Incorporating U.S. equities could help Chinese investors diversify their strategies and alleviate home-country bias. For example, the S&P 500® may be relevant for exposure and sensitivity to the U.S. economy. Additionally, market participants seeking to offset domestic equity biases or express…
tadamichi Commentary In 2023, the Polen Capital U.S. Small Company Growth Composite Portfolio (the Portfolio) returned 10.46% gross and 10.22% net of fees compared to a 12.75% return for the Russell 2000 Growth Index. In many ways, we believe it served as a testament to the resilience of our investment strategy amidst constant and severe…
kynny Veeco Instruments (NASDAQ:VECO), a supplier of semiconductor process equipment, closed the books on FY2023 with the release of the latest Form 10-K. In general, FY2023 was a good year for VECO, which found its way back to the stock with strong gains. In fact, VECO was able to grow the top and the bottom…
baranozdemir By James Knightley, Chief International Economist Surprise ISM drop shows manufacturing woes continue We have had some surprisingly soft numbers out of the US this morning. The ISM manufacturing survey fell to 47.7 in February from 49.1 (consensus 49.5), contradicting the story told by the bulk of the regional manufacturing reports. That means we…
Iryna Drozd/iStock via Getty Images Investors in The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD), who picked its steep pullback in October/November 2023, have done relatively well, as SCHD bottomed out resoundingly. I also urged investors to buy SCHD aggressively in November, assessing the ETF as a prime beneficiary in a further recovery as pessimism likely…
Kubrak78/E+ via Getty Images Intact Financial Corporation (TSX:IFC:CA) is the dominant Property & Casualty Insurer in Canada. After reaching market dominance in Canada by acquisition, the company has expanded into the U.S. and U.K. by further acquisitions in recent years. Property & Casualty Insurance has been through a tough few years, but the industry has…
Khanchit Khirisutchalual The Federal Reserve remains data-dependent, as the central bank’s Chairman, Jerome Powell, likes to say, and perhaps that’s especially true now as policymakers weigh the prospects for when (or if) to start cutting interest rates this year. Recent economic data has again raised doubts about the timing for the arrival of a dovish…
Galeanu Mihai/iStock via Getty Images While other major economies stagnated or contracted in the second half of 2023, the U.S. economy has been thriving and has thus far weathered the most vigorous period of interest rate hikes in nearly forty years. The strength of the economy has driven U.S. equity market outperformance – a trend…
John Kevin Investment thesis My first bearish thesis about the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) did not age well, since the ETF rallied by almost 18% since late October. I am a mentally healthy person and will unlikely ever bet against the largest U.S. corporations from a long-term perspective. Still, I expected a temporary pullback…
monsitj By Jharonne Martis The LSEG U.S. Retail and Restaurant Q4 earnings index, which tracks changes in the growth rate of earnings within the sector, is expected to show a 33.7% growth over last year’s levels. However, much of this growth is coming from just two categories, and our metrics show that six of 10…
stanciuc By Jason Callan, Senior Portfolio Manager, Head of Core and Core Plus, Co-Head of Structured Assets; Ryan Osborn, CFA, Senior Portfolio Manager, Co-head of Structured Assets As interest rates rose, U.S. consumers remained resilient due to robust balance sheets, but will this last? While cracks are beginning to appear, we see potential opportunities within…
Thai Liang Lim By Indrani De, CFA, PRM, Global Investment Research and Catherine Yoshimoto, Director, Product Management The Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indexes (‘R1’ and ‘R2’) have mapped the US equity market successfully for four decades. But did you know the R1 gives you significant investment exposure to the global economy as well? US…
Jeremy Poland Introduction The Strive U.S. Energy ETF (NYSE:DRLL) (“DRLL” or the “Fund“) is a passively managed exchange traded fund ((ETF)). The Fund seeks broad and concentrated market exposure to the U.S. energy sector (broadly speaking). Due to a negative near-term view of the energy sector (cynically, I expect the Biden administration will work to…
Photography taken by Mario Gutiérrez./Moment via Getty Images Overview The US dollar (DXY, USDOLLAR) is enjoying a mostly firmer bias ahead of today’s CPI report. Sterling is the strongest among the G10 currencies after a more-resilient-than-expected labor market report. The dollar extended its gains against the Japanese yen to a new high since last November,…
ValeryEgorov Step One: Wide-moat stocks with 5-star and 4-star ratings Historical evidence says that while quality alone is a poor indicator of outperformance when combined with a decent valuation filter, Morningstar’s moat rating proves to be more than useful. Based on the available data, stocks with a wide-moat rating that also fit into the 4-…
Prykhodov Six IPOs priced this past week, joined by two blank check companies. One larger deal did not get done: Fortegra (TFG) pulled its $297 million offering ahead of its expected pricing. The specialty insurer had previously attempted to go public in early 2021 but scrapped those plans ahead of pricing as well. Autoimmune disease…