DKosig As of December 31st, 2023, the S&P 500 was forecasting a return of 1.34%/year over the next ten years, with no adjustment for inflation. As of the close on May 10th, 2024, that figure was 0.32%/year. Why so glum? US entities are overinvested in stocks and private equity. Since 1945, the fraction of total…
Pratchaya Introduction A few months ago, Luna Innovations (NASDAQ:LUNA) started to look like a potential multibagger, thanks to great technology and an experienced management team. Today, however, the company is plagued by accounting problems, an internal investigation and a management team in shambles. Now, the company is potentially looking to sell itself (as the company…
Jitalia17 April saw a sell-off in global government debt markets, as yields on 10-year benchmark notes increased across the board. The month’s biggest mover was the yield on the U.S. Treasury, which climbed 49 basis points to 4.68% from 4.19% the month prior. The country’s inflation rate rose to 2.7% in March, while its GDP…
SusanneB This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Yacktman’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Yacktman Asset Management’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 5/2/2024. Please visit our Tracking Yacktman Asset Management series to get an idea of their investment philosophy…
400tmax …it took Google more than 15 years to reach $100 billion in annual revenue. In just the last 6 years, we have gone from $100 billion to more than $300 billion in annual revenue Despite following Big Tech closely for the last 5 years, this sentence from Thursday’s call still somewhat surprised me! The…
gopixa The following data is derived from trading activity on the Tradeweb Markets institutional European- and U.S.-listed ETF platforms. European-Listed ETFs Total traded volume Trading activity on the Tradeweb European ETF marketplace reached EUR 55.6 billion in March, while the proportion of transactions processed via Tradeweb’s Automated Intelligent Execution (AiEX) tool amounted to 86.1%, the…
Benjamas Deekam/iStock via Getty Images By Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the updated ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, which has seen some progress underneath the surface despite not having any indicator changes. And, he shares his views on…
mikkelwilliam Co-Authored with Total Return Investor Revisiting Julia 2023 The concept of an All-Weather Portfolio – a portfolio that can perform satisfactorily in any market conditions, without any need for buying or selling – is not a new one. The “60/40” portfolio – 60% stocks, 40% bonds – is an idea that’s been around since…
thitivong John’s portfolio hasn’t been as active as his spouse Jane’s (especially when you look at the trade history in the Roth IRA), and to be honest, that’s the way we prefer it because when you have a retiree that is at the point of drawing RMD’s certainty and consistency is the name of the…
Vertigo3d/iStock via Getty Images MacroGenics (NASDAQ:MGNX) is an important biotech to keep an eye on, because it has been able to make remarkable progress on advancing the use of its lead drug vobra duo [vobramitamab duocarmazine] in the ongoing phase 2 TAMARACK study for the treatment of patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer [mCRPC]. It…
honglouwawa This S&P 500 annual return table shows the annual returns for the benchmark for various periods going back to 1/1/2000. From 1/1/2000 through 3/31/2024, the annual return for the S&P 500 is just 7.40%, the only return that looks reasonable the last 23 years. Looking at the S&P 500 annual return data by decade:…
Monty Rakusen Dear readers/followers, If you’ve followed my work to any extent over the past few years, you know that I’m a big investor in many areas that other investors shun – one of them is cyclical commodities, including metals – both precious and semi-precious. Copper is one of them. I invest both In European…
Erasca, Inc. (NASDAQ:ERAS) R&D Update Call and Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call March 28, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Jonathan Lim – Chairman, CEO & Co-founderShannon Morris – Chief Medical OfficerDavid Chacko – CFO & Chief Business Officer Conference Call Participants Anupam Rama – JP MorganMichael Riad – Morgan StanleyAlec Stranahan – Bank of…
deepblue4you Today, the Fed released the February money supply data, and there were no unwelcome surprises. M2 continues to shrink relative to the economy, and that’s the reason inflation is likely to continue to fall. Chart #1 Chart #1 shows the recent history of currency in circulation, which represents about 10% of M2. It rose…
champpixs It has been nearly four years since I wrote about Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:WPRT) on Seeking Alpha. On June 9, 2020. WPRT was trading below the $1.50 per share level in June 2020 on a pre-split basis when I wrote: In a world that looks for a cleaner environment, the addressable market for…
William_Potter This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Harris Associates 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Harris Associates’ regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. William Nygren’s 13F portfolio value increased from $51.39B to $58.34B this quarter. The portfolio is diversified…
tang90246 This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to BAMCO Inc.’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Ron Baron’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. The 13F portfolio value increased from $34.42B to $37.55B this quarter. The holdings are diversified with…
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News The benchmark index of Wall Street, the S&P 500 (SP500), surged by about 1% to a new all time high following fresh signals from the Federal Reserve and Chair Jay Powell about the rates path in 2024. While the updated FOMC projections highlight a slight shift in the rates dotplot at…
spooh A guest post by D Coyne The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for March 2024 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is February 2024 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In the OPEC…
Torsten Asmus February represented a fantastic month for income generation, with growth of 15.52% for the month of February (compared to income generated February 2023). Income growth is looking strong, but I have some concerns as the DJIA, S&P500, and Nasdaq all continue to push record highs. When I see situations like this, I put…
Paras Griffin This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Ariel Investments’ 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Ariel Investments’ regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. John Rogers’ 13F portfolio value increased from $9.45B to $10.04B this quarter. The portfolio is…
DNY59 In this article we take a fresh look at the municipal fund space, with a particular focus on tax-exempt muni CEFs. The sector has gone on a rollercoaster ride with a sharp rise in yields starting in 2022 and what looks like a blow-off top late last year after which yields have fallen and…
Darren415 In this article, we provide an update on the PIMCO CEF (closed-end fund) suite. Specifically, we discuss the changes in leverage and distribution coverage. We also discuss the reversal of performance of the taxable funds so far this year, as well as changes in the funds’ swap portfolios. Coverage Update Muni distribution coverage renewed…
m63085 Continuing January’s trend, government bond markets experienced another sell-off in February. Yields on 10-year benchmark notes saw double-digit increases apart from those for Japan, which dropped by two basis points in the month prior to finish at 0.71%. The country’s inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in January, the lowest figure since March 2022, while…
Ethan Miller This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Einhorn’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. Please visit our Tracking David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Holdings article series for an idea on…
SlavkoSereda For March, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices should range between $70 and $90 per barrel. This is an increase of $5 per barrel from last month. A narrower range is between $75 and $85 per barrel. For most of last month, prices were tightly packed between the low and high $70s. As the…
Neilson Barnard This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Carl Icahn’s 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Icahn’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. Please visit our Tracking Carl Icahn’s Portfolio series to get an idea of his investment philosophy and…
Bryan Bedder This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to George Soros’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on George Soros’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. Please visit our Tracking Soros Fund Management Holdings article for an idea on his investment…
bernie_photo John is starting off the year with some pretty compelling projections for his income. With the first month in the books it looks like we are slightly off when it comes to the Traditional IRA but exceeding expectations in the Roth IRA. The funny part is that you would think it would be easier…
WWD/WWD via Getty Images Introduction On July 24, 2022, I published an analysis of Pandora A/S (OTCPK:PANDY)(OTCPK:PNDZF), evaluating the company as a good investment opportunity with an excellent risk/return ratio. Since the day the article was published, the stock price has increased by about +120%, and compared to my average purchase price, the performance has…
Paul Morigi This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Warren Buffett’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/14/2024. Please visit our Tracking 10 Years Of Berkshire Hathaway’s Investment Portfolio article series for an…
thitimon toyai This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Akre Capital Management’s 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Akre’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/9/2024. Please visit our Tracking Akre Capital Management Portfolio series to get an idea of their investment…
pcess609 Dear Investment Partners, Jackson Peak Capital’s objective is to deliver attractive risk-adjusted, absolute returns. We are striving to achieve equity-like returns while taking significantly less directional market risk and having low correlation to overall equity markets. The firm launched in March 2023, so the completion of Q4 2023 marks ten months of investment activity….
Peter Zelei Images/Moment via Getty Images By Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments The latest January release of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard shows another indicator move from red to yellow. Jeff Schulze of ClearBridge Investments shares his insights on what this could mean for the recession outlook in the…
SusanneB This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Yacktman’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Yacktman Asset Management’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 2/2/2024. Please visit our Tracking Yacktman Asset Management series to get an idea of their investment philosophy…
Olivier Le Moal January picked up right where 2023 left off. The market headed for record highs, with what felt like the first down day occurring right at the end of the month. Dividend increases were a mixed bag, with some major disappointments for dividend growth investors from dividend stalwarts and unexpected significant increases from…
Kimberly White Innoviz and Design Deals I wrote about Innoviz (NASDAQ:INVZ) in August after the company had a lot to announce on the path to growth with specific indications around BMW Group (OTCPK:BMWYY) and the relationship toward second-generation sensor InnovizTwo as a future B sample to be tested by it. Innoviz is a lidar company…
cemagraphics In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdle rates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital. Since…
zhengzaishuru A guest post by D Coyne The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for January 2024 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is December 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of…
Kira88/iStock via Getty Images Fundamentals: Gold Price Consolidation and Outlook: Gold prices closed the week with a strong consolidation above the $2025 per ounce mark, setting a positive tone for the beginning of 2024. This stability suggests that gold may be well-positioned for potential gains in the coming weeks. Week of Surprises: The past week…
Three Images On January the 23rd, Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG) will provide its annual business update during a conference call with CEO Andy Marsh and CFO Paul Middleton. Plug Power’s stock has been in very turbulent waters recently. The stock lost almost half of its value during the first weeks of 2024. In this article, I…
Marco Bello This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to ARK Invest’ 13F portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on their regulatory 13F Form filed on 1/17/2024. ARK Invest was founded by Cathie Wood in 2014. They manage several actively managed ETFs, index ETFs,…
The Charles Schwab Corporation (NYSE:SCHW) 2024 Winter Business Update January 17, 2024 8:30 AM ET Company Participants Jeff Edwards – Managing Director, Head of Investor Relations Walt Bettinger – Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rick Wurster – President Peter Crawford – Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Ken Worthington – JPMorgan Steven Chubak…
peshkov A guest post by D Coyne STEO The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was published in early January. The chart below estimates World C+C by using the STEO forecast combined with past data from the EIA on World Output. The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) was revised lower for both 2023 and…
Dilok Klaisataporn The following is an overview of the market cycle as it stands at the beginning of Q1 2024. We will focus on the core of the cycle—corporate earnings—and work our way out in order to gain a comprehensive view of markets across asset classes. This will help organize our analysis over the coming…
John Lamb Dear Friends & Partners, Our investment returns are summarized in the table below: Strategy Month YTD 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months Inception LRT Global Opportunities -5.27% +14.15% +14.15% -13.98% -0.03% +18.94% Click to enlarge Results as of 12/31/2023. Periods longer than one year are annualized. All results are net of all fees…
gopixa The following data is derived from trading activity on the Tradeweb Markets institutional European- and U.S.-listed ETF platforms. European-Listed ETFs Total traded volume Trading activity on the Tradeweb European ETF marketplace reached EUR 55.3 billion in December, while the proportion of transactions processed via Tradeweb’s Automated Intelligent Execution (AiEX) tool was 84.4%, the highest…
shih-wei By Jeffrey Schulze, CFA, Head of Economic and Market Strategy, ClearBridge Investments As 2024 kicks off, we sit down with ClearBridge Investment’s Jeff Schulze for an update on the Recession Risk Dashboard that has recently seen some indicator moves from red to yellow and learn whether recent US economic and labor data have impacted…
RHJ Overview Vizsla Silver (NYSE:VZLA) is a precious metals exploration & development company which is listed in the U.S. and Canada (TSXV:VZLA:CA). The company’s fiscal year ends in April and the reporting currency is Canadian Dollars. Vizsla Silver owns the highly prospective Panuco project in Mexico, which has shown to contain some very high-grade silver…
Andrzej Rostek Thesis overview In my prior coverage I recommended APLT as a “Buy” on the prospects of positive interactions with the FDA and NDA submission of AT-007 for the treatment of galactosemia. On that front everything is going as planned so far, with both NDA (USA) and MAA ((Europe)) submissions announced 2 days ago….