Image Source Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation among the 12 factors driving yields in each country. For more on the companion U.S. Treasury simulation, please contact the author. Both the Bund and the U.S. Treasury yield simulations impact foreign…
Vernon Wiley/DigitalVision via Getty Images As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book, cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with…
narvikk Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation among the 12 factors driving yields in each country. For more on the companion U.S. Treasury simulation, please contact the author. Both the Bund and the U.S. Treasury yield simulations impact foreign exchange…
Bim As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book, cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded yield…
Thomas Barwick As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded…
gaffera Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation among the 12 factors driving yields in each country. For more on the companion U.S. Treasury simulation, please contact the author. Both the Bund and the U.S. Treasury yield simulations impact foreign exchange…
Global banking giant Standard Chartered has upped its bitcoin price prediction for the end of 2024 to $150,000, a significant increase from its previous forecast of $100,000. In a new report, Standard Chartered analysts cited strong inflows into recently launched spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. as a primary driver of their bullish outlook. The…
Photofex Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation among the 12 factors driving yields in each country. For more on the companion U.S. Treasury simulation, please contact the author. Both the Bund and the U.S. Treasury yield simulations impact foreign exchange…
Torsten Asmus As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded…
franckreporter The last few years haven’t been kind to the UK stock market and the FTSE 250, much like the FTSE 100, has fallen out of favour with all but the hardiest and most dedicated (or stubborn) UK investors. Perhaps now is indeed the time to throw in the towel, sell everything UK-related and move…
KenDrysdale/iStock via Getty Images The FTSE 100 (UKX) is the index that everyone loves to hate. It’s full of dinosaur companies from legacy industries like banking, utilities, and commodities, and no self-respecting investor would touch it with a barge pole when they can funnel their cash into the much more glamorous and better-performing S&P 500…
guvendemir Earnings season is here for the stock market, and the fourth quarter is not expected to be as strong as the third quarter, based on analysts’ consensus estimates. This may surprise some, given that the equity market has rallied aggressively since the third-quarter reporting season ended in October. Fourth-quarter earnings for the S&P 500…
Boy Wirat As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded…
airdone 2023 could be described as nothing short of a rollercoaster, as shown in Figure 1. Our 2023 total return forecast of +8% to +12% ended up being too low relative to the actual calendar year total return of +13.7%, in spite of mid-year prices on the MSCI US REIT Index (Bloomberg: RMZ) falling to…
Wirestock SAS Institute Inc. With inflation at or near the highest levels in roughly four decades, any rational investor should be asking “How well do U.S. Treasury yields forecast inflation?” Why? If Treasury yields are poor indicators of future inflation, then no one should buy bonds. On the other hand, if Treasury yields are reasonably…
JONGHO SHIN As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded…
Panuwat Dangsungnoen/iStock via Getty Images Last year at this time, this blog thought that 2023 would be a better year, with a prediction of positive returns for both stocks and bonds. To be frank with readers, to know that Ed Yardeni and Tom Lee are both optimistic about 2024 stock and bond returns makes it…
-aniaostudio- As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded yield…
This integration with established financial institutions is expected to provide substantial support for the crypto sector. Hashdex, a leading global crypto-focused investing company, has unveiled its much-anticipated “2024 Crypto Investment Outlook – Opportunity meets Optimism”. The forecast delves into the expectations for the upcoming year and beyond, providing insights from Hashdex’s leadership and digital asset…
G0d4ather As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded yield…
Justin Sullivan Summary Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) is a visual discovery and bookmarking platform that allows users to explore, save, and categorize images and ideas on virtual pinboards. Catering to both individuals seeking inspiration and businesses aiming to reach a targeted audience, PINS bridges the gap between discovery and action. Users can find ideas on everything…
aydinmutlu As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded yield…
OPEC strongly criticized the IEA’s forecast of peak fossil fuel demand before the decade’s end, labeling the IEA’s narrative as “extremely risky,” “impractical,” and “ideologically driven”. OPEC has revised its medium- and long-term projections for global oil demand upward. The oil-producing consortium stated that meeting this increased demand would necessitate a substantial $14 trillion investment…
Alstom highlighted reasons for the free cash flow reduction for H1 of the fiscal year, and predicted a reduced figure for the full year. Shares in French train manufacturer Alstom crashed by more than 35% following a reduction in the company’s forecast for free cash flow. As of this writing, Alstom shares are selling at…
Alper Akca Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation among the 12 factors driving yields in each country. For more on the companion U.S. Treasury simulation, please contact the author. Both the Bund and the U.S. Treasury yield simulations impact foreign…
DNY59 As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded yield…
Scott Olson As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded…
BrianAJackson The streak of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads has now reached 287 trading days, 9 trading days longer than the third longest streak since 1976. The probability that the inverted yield curve ends by February 23, 2024 is now 7.6% compared to 13.1% last week. That means that the current streak is less likely to…
Driven by the high demand for AI products, Nvidia reported a significant increase in revenue and expects exponential growth ahead. Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares closed Wednesday trading at $471.16, up 3.17 percent from the day’s opening price. The NVDA gains extended by about 6.58 percent during the after-hours session to trade at about $502.15….
mdesigner125 Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to “mark your beliefs to market.”…
JohnnyGreig The most amusing central bank news in recent years is that the Bank of England asked former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to review its economic forecast after it failed so badly to stop inflation. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that Mr. Bernanke’s review would help central bankers “take a step back…