Lhotse is the fourth highest mountain on the planet. Alongside Everest to the north, and Nuptse to the west, it forms a hulking horseshoe of rock and ice that towers over Nepal’s famous Khumbu valley. This month — maybe in the next week — a 35-year old Englishman hopes to reach the 8,516-metre summit, traverse…
Vernon Wiley/DigitalVision via Getty Images As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book, cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with…
shayes17/E+ via Getty Images Introduction This article updates my outlook for 2024 with the latest Momentum Gauge® signals and a revisit of the January Investing Experts Podcast interview with Rena Sherbill at Seeking Alpha. This past April 2nd marked an early negative Momentum Gauge® test signal followed by an official negative daily signal on April…
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images News Introduction The Fed’s Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday, releasing the March FOMC summary, which can be found here. At the press conference that followed, the opening statement of which can be found here, Powell made several points very clear: We are indeed at peak rates (something I called back in December)…
DNY59 As the S&P 500 has risen to new highs, analysts and investors have played down valuation concerns as they still compare favourably to the 2000 bubble peak. Justifying expensive valuations by comparing them with the biggest bubble in US history tells us something about the bullish sentiment in the market, but it also ignores…
Nilang Kachare The 1995-like bullish thesis The stock market bulls argue that the current environment is similar to the environment in 1995, which is when the dot.com bubble started to form, and continued to inflate until March 2000. The bullish thesis is that the current AI-bubble is similarly in a very early stage, with possibly…
Local Man Buys SPAM To Boost Hormel Stock Price PA Images/PA Images via Getty Images It has been a tough year for Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE:HRL) investors. The stock has chronically disappointed and has underperformed the broader market, i.e., S&P 500 (SPY) and the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP), by a huge margin. Data…
pcess609 Dear Investment Partners, Jackson Peak Capital’s objective is to deliver attractive risk-adjusted, absolute returns. We are striving to achieve equity-like returns while taking significantly less directional market risk and having low correlation to overall equity markets. The firm launched in March 2023, so the completion of Q4 2023 marks ten months of investment activity….
Justin Sullivan In our prior analysis of Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), we focused on its semiconductor business segment, emphasizing its robust growth propelled by Networking, driven by swift product development in the realm of AI. Additionally, we highlighted positive trends in other segments such as Storage, Wireless, and Broadband, all benefiting from the deployment of 5G…
Bjoern Wylezich/iStock via Getty Images Thesis To kick off 2024 I decided to take a look at the energy markets from a different perspective. The market doesn’t always get things right, so I took a look at the worst performers over the course of 2023. I screened both American and Canadian energy companies with a…
Nikada Dear Investment Partners, Jackson Peak Capital’s objective is to deliver attractive risk-adjusted, absolute returns. We are striving to achieve equity-like returns while taking less directional market risk and having low correlation to overall equity markets. The firm officially launched in March 2023, so Q3 2023 marked our second full quarter of investment activity. Q3…
ismagilov We’ve been here before, but after Wednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged, along with comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, investors are wondering anew if the policy tightening regime has peaked. By some accounts the latest slide in the 10-year US Treasury yield is helping tip the scale in…
kitzcorner/iStock via Getty Images Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) is one of the leading tech conglomerates in Southeast Asia, which operates its digital entertainment, e-commerce, and digital financial service businesses. The company continues to be an important player in transforming the global retail market, serving the diverse needs of tens of millions of customers. Sea’s Shopee is…
HABesen/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Shares of State Street (NYSE:STT) rallied a bit on Wednesday after reporting better-than-expected earnings. While shares are 7% higher over the past year, they remain more than 20% below their early 2023 highs before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. With a single-digit earnings multiple and 4% dividend yield, shares…
champc Our September Cyclical Forum was the first to be held in London, where the economic situation today reflects what’s happening around the world. The Bank of England (BOE) is nearing the end of a long journey to raise interest rates. This tightening of monetary policy has fueled increased volatility in U.K. financial markets, and…
OPEC strongly criticized the IEA’s forecast of peak fossil fuel demand before the decade’s end, labeling the IEA’s narrative as “extremely risky,” “impractical,” and “ideologically driven”. OPEC has revised its medium- and long-term projections for global oil demand upward. The oil-producing consortium stated that meeting this increased demand would necessitate a substantial $14 trillion investment…
clubfoto By James Smith, Developed Markets Economist Investors have revised down UK rate expectations over recent weeks Against a backdrop of rising US market rates, it’s all the more eye-catching that UK rate expectations continued to fall back through September. The differential between US and UK rates has narrowed considerably as a result, and if…
DNY59 As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded yield…
sefa ozel/iStock via Getty Images Investment thesis After benefitting from interest rate hikes driving net interest income growth, we believe HSBC (NYSE:HSBC) will have to deal with increasing credit risk in China and the UK markets, as well as falling loan growth. With earnings peaking in FY12/2023, we are lowering our rating from neutral to…
Scott Olson As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded…
LazingBee/iStock via Getty Images It was five years ago in September of 2018 when I wrote this article Equity CEFs: Peak Insanity? when the markets were at their year-to-date highs and I was calling out the number of equity CEFs I followed that were at premium valuations even while the threat of lower liquidity and…
TU IS/iStock via Getty Images Dear Partners and Friends, Our partnership recorded a gain of +17.1% net of all fees, expenses, and allocations for the quarter ending June 30, 2023. Over the same period, the S&P 500 (SP500, SPX) recorded a gain of +8.7% including dividends. Period1 Partnership Returns1,2 S&P 500 Returns1,3 Q3 2021 9.5%…
Sakorn Sukkasemsakorn After a rough beginning to earnings season, the peak season got off to an impressive start last week, with many highly-anticipated companies reporting better-than-expected results. Big tech in particular led the rally last week, with the Nasdaq Composite closing nearly 2% higher by Friday. While Microsoft (MSFT) surpassed expectations on the top and…
Healthpeak Properties, Inc. (NYSE:PEAK) Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call July 28, 2023 9:00 AM ET Company Participants Andrew Johns – SVP, IR Scott M. Brinker – President and CEO Peter A. Scott – CFO Scott R. Bohn – Chief Development Officer and Co-Head of Life Science Thomas M. Klaritch – COO Conference Call Participants Juan…