This article was written by Follow Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and Co-Founder and General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals…
This article was written by Follow Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Charles provides both insight about individual investor sentiment and market analysis. He is also the author of “Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the…
PM Images Altria Group (NYSE:MO) has been a battleground stock for years. The bears have been winning as shares have declined by -15.76% over the past five years. This has caused the dividend yield to gradually increase as MO has increased the dividend payment on an annual basis while its share price deteriorated. One of…
champpixs Almost a year ago, I penned a draft for Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST) titled: Upstart: Too hard basket until interest rates turn. I had expected the nearing quarterly report to be negative, but instead it was very positive, and instead I completely rewrote the article as “A leaner Upstart can grow from here” and rated the…
This article was written by Follow Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Charles provides both insight about individual investor sentiment and market analysis. He is also the author of “Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the…
Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images The list of things that could derail risk-on sentiment is long and varied, but at the moment the crowd has shown little enthusiasm for abandoning winning trades. That’s the message via several pairs of ETF proxies for profiling the appetite for risk – a review that reaffirms that bullish enthusiasm…
Ong-ad Nuseewor CEO Optimism Abounds After a volatile 2023, CEO confidence seems to be rebounding in 2024. A number of readings on CEO sentiment, including our own Late Earnings Report Index (LERI), seem to be indicating that executives are feeling more certain about corporate growth prospects. Investor sentiment has also been improving as of late….
ra2studio Listen here or on the go via Apple and Spotify. Jared Dillian shares why he focuses on market sentiment (2:30). Private equity’s systemic risk (5:30). The Fed wants to cut interest rates and add liquidity before the US election, but the market’s not cooperating. No clear signal on bonds (7:35). Why investors should avoid…
spxChrome Earlier today, the National Association of Home Builders published its March reading on homebuilder sentiment. The headline index rose back above 50 and into expansionary territory. Albeit back in expansion, the index is only at the highest level since last July, and that is well below much of the past decade’s range. The only…
Jae Young Ju By Levi at Elliott Wave Trader; Produced with Avi Gilburt. Someone we consider among the preeminent fundamental analysts in the financial world affirms that Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock predominately trades on “sentiment and technicals.” This is our own Lyn Alden. Now, if you dig a bit deeper, you will next discover that…
miroslav_1/iStock via Getty Images Summary In our initial report on Northview Residential REIT (TSX:NRR.UN:CA) back in October 2023, we outlined our bull thesis for the REIT. The recapitalization transaction had deleveraged the balance sheet, reduced the distribution rate to a sustainable level, internalized asset management, and converted the REIT from an externally managed, closed-end structure…
This article was written by Follow Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Charles provides both insight about individual investor sentiment and market analysis. He is also the author of “Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the…
Ravitaliy/iStock via Getty Images Listen above or on the go via Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Avi Gilburt talks about TLT 2024 targets and what’s taking shape in treasury market (0:25). Why he’s bullish on the metals; will silver outperform gold? (3:45) This is an abridged version of a recent conversation. Subscribe to Avi’s The Market…
matejmo/iStock via Getty Images This is the 1,900th consecutive week that the AAII Sentiment Survey has been conducted! Our weekly survey started in late July 1987. To coincide with this milestone, we sent out a separate questionnaire asking AAII members for their year-end 2024 forecasts. First, though, we’ll share this week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results….
FrankvandenBergh Stockcharts Short-Term Pain (maybe)? Yesterday’s sell-off in equity markets coincided with another weak Treasury bond auction. That minor catalyst was compounded by the low liquidity of holiday markets. Friday’s Core PCE inflation numbers should put the final nail in the coffin for any Fed Cut doubters. I doubt you will see any more officials…
MaximFesenko/iStock via Getty Images By Levi at StockWaves; Produced with Avi Gilburt We’re going to briefly discuss what sentiment truly is and how it moves markets. Also, Lyn Alden provides us with some compelling data regarding the fundamental picture for Cigna (NYSE:CI). There is some bonus coverage of UnitedHealth (UNH) as well. Here we go!…
The three major indexes, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq are enjoying a continued rally as the market hopes for rate cuts. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) all closed higher, maintaining streaks of continuous increases. The Nasdaq hit 14,904.81 after adding 0.61%, while the Dow added…
Bet_Noire I have wavered between a negative to neutral view of the U.S. stock market’s immediate direction during 2023, happy to hold a hedged portfolio and lots of cash earning 5%. Mind you I have refrained from being net short the market. I do own large gold/silver bullion holdings, a few bonds, and some exposure…
deepblue4you The NFIB unveiled its latest look at small business sentiment early Tuesday morning. The headline number remains in the bottom decile of its historical range, falling 0.1 points to 90.6 in November. That is compared to expectations which called for the number to be unchanged last month. Across the categories factoring into the index,…
simonkr Intro We wrote about FONAR Corporation (NASDAQ:FONR) back in August of last year when we pointed to how the company’s significant balance sheet strength would ultimately result in share-price gains for the healthcare company. Although cash & shareholder equity numbers were growing meaningfully on Fonar’s balance sheet, shares at the time were testing underside…
This article was written by Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Charles provides both insight about individual investor sentiment and market analysis. He is also the author of “Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward…
Henrik5000 Overview Global markets in Q3 2023 were characterized by a decline in bullish sentiment that had lifted stocks out of a bear market in the first half of the year, with the MSCI ACWI Index declining by 3.3% in the third quarter. Investors were increasingly confident that a recession was not coming this year,…
SDI Productions/E+ via Getty Images Green energy once formed an incredibly sunny part of the stock market with an investment pitch that had everything required for long-term alpha generation. This ranged from unparalleled global government support to healthy underlying economics as utility-scale solar photovoltaics and onshore wind both came to form technologies with the lowest…
TERADAT SANTIVIVUT The S&P 500 having made fresh lows in the past week has justified a continued decline in bullish sentiment per the latest AAII survey. As shown below, only 29.3% of respondents reported as bullish this week compared to 34.1% last week. Although sentiment has quickly reversed, the last week of September actually saw…
Wolterk/iStock Editorial via Getty Images VICI Properties (NYSE:VICI) announced third-quarter results that slightly exceeded expectations, as FFO amounted to $0.54, a $0.01 beat, and revenues totaled $904 million, a minor beat as well. It hasn’t been a good year for VICI shareholders, as rising long-term yields and higher interest rates are materially reducing the intrinsic…
MicroStockHub In January 2023, the clues appeared to be aligning in favor of an end to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. It was a false dawn – the Fed lifted its target rate four times in subsequent months, by a total of 100 basis points. Fast forward to today, and once again the numbers leave…
ugurhan Maybe I am foolish. Maybe I don’t know what I am talking about. But, I am still seeing the potential for the bulls to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Yet, their opportunity is narrowing. Although the market tried many times, it was unable to break out through the 4401SPX important resistance we…
Justin Sullivan During the pandemic, PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL) was riding high, with its stock trading around $300 in 2021. However, times have changed and the stock price has plummeted to a six-year low, losing 35.11% value over the last year. Recent years have been unkind to PayPal due to the end of its 19-year partnership…
hapabapa Markets are clearly concerned about the U.S. budget deficit and war spending. Since the war began, the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed $76.8 billion in assistance to Ukraine. The Administration is now drafting a bill for another $100 billion for Israel and Ukraine. Whether you view these expenses as discretionary or…
naphtalina/iStock via Getty Images Then God said, “Let there be light,” and there was light. And God saw that the light was good. Then he separated the light from the darkness. God called the light “day” and the darkness “night.” And evening passed and morning came, marking the first day. With rates steadying and turning,…
Sabine Hortebusch/iStock via Getty Images The Inflection Point An inflection point is a moment in time when small but critical events determine long term trends. We think today is such a moment (red circle) and is defined by this question: “Is the recent, two month, 8% decline just a normal correction in a bull market…
Nikada Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks rose for the third consecutive week in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Bullish sentiment also rose for the first time in four weeks. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 2.3 percentage points to 30.1%. Even…
Shutter2U Free to move about the cabin After refusing to endorse the summer rally, insiders are buying the fall dip. The S&P 500 concluded the third quarter on a whimper down -4.8% on a total return basis for the month of September. A pullback in equity market valuations and a return to a healthier level…
naphtalina/iStock via Getty Images I wouldn’t make that bet. Despite 10-year yields breaking above the dreaded 4.50% level, history shows – at least 11x since 1960 that many of the “breakouts” in yields wind up actually being “fake outs” in yields. Don’t buy the hype… For everyone shorting bonds in the hole, keep in mind…
Mustapha Madoul The INTC Investment Thesis Remains Sentiment Driven We previously covered Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) in July 2023, discussing the management’s pessimistic commentary on its lower gross margins over the next few years, thanks to its impacted ASPs and underloaded capacity. INTC 5Y Performance Trading View Combined with the previous dividend cut, we were not sure…
As investors brace themselves for another week of market volatility and unsteady stock futures, all eyes are on the crucial economic data releases that could have a profound impact on the financial landscape. This morning marked a cautious start for investors as stock futures presented a mixed outlook following a positive day on Wall Street….
This article was written by Tom Hayes is Founder, Chairman and Managing Member of Great Hill Capital, LLC (a long/short equity manager based in New York City). He started Hedge Fund Tips as a platform to share actionable insights, tips and research for investors/traders to benefit from – based on what he has learned in…
This article was written by Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Charles provides both insight about individual investor sentiment and market analysis. He is also the author of “Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward…
TERADAT SANTIVIVUT Although the S&P 500 has risen 3.25% in the past week, sentiment has seen little in the way of recovery from the substantial increase in bearish sentiment earlier this month. The AAII’s weekly sentiment survey saw bullish sentiment rise just 0.8 percentage points week over week to 33.1%. While that is a few…
wanderluster We carefully monitor what investors are thinking and doing. This provides insight into what they feel about the market, which is important because over 50% of a stock’s price move is driven by emotion. With the price decline over the last three weeks, market sentiment has rapidly switched from bullish to bearish. We are…
shih-wei Small business sentiment from the NFIB’s monthly survey rebounded in July, with the headline index reading 91.9 versus expectations of it rising only 0.3 points to 91.3. As shown below, small businesses are still reporting much weaker optimism than pre-pandemic or even in the first year of the pandemic, but sentiment has been making…
naphtalina/iStock via Getty Images CNBC Closing Bell This morning I joined Ade Nurul Safrina on CNBC “Closing Bell” Indonesia to discuss the Fed’s move yesterday, Emerging Markets, Earnings and Markets Outlook moving forward. CPS As many of you know, Cooper-Standard (CPS) started as one of our largest three positions (by capital deployed) in May of…