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Welcome to the September 2023 edition of the lithium miner news.
The past month saw a continued fall in lithium carbonate spot prices in China, now close to the level where they bottomed in late April 2023 (see chart below).
Lithium price news
Asian Metal reported during the past 30 days, the 99.5% China delivered lithium carbonate (99.5% min.) spot price was down 24.36% and the China lithium hydroxide (56.5% min.) price was down 14.25%. The Lithium Iron Phosphate (3.9% min) price was down 18.20%. The Spodumene (6% min) price was down 15.82% over the past 30 days.
Metal.com reported lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) average price of USD 3,000/t, as of Sept. 22, 2023.
China lithium carbonate spot price 5 year chart – CNY 178,500 (~USD 24,358) (source)
Trading Economics 
S&P Global lithium price forecast as of Nov. 2022 (source)
S&PGlobal
Wood Mackenzie’s lithium price forecast – July 2022 (Source)
Wood Mackenzie
Lithium demand versus supply outlook
2022 – UBS lithium demand v supply forecast to 2030
UBS
Lithium demand v supply forecast by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (mid 2022 forecast)
BMI
Fastmarkets forecasting mostly lithium deficits ahead to 2025 (as of March 2023) (Source)
Fastmarkets
BMI (Q2, 2022 forecast) – Lithium demand to exceed supply mostly this decade
BMI
Lithium demand v supply chart (kt LCE battery grade) (deficits forecast every year with only a slight surplus in 2027) (source)
Liontown courtesy of Wood Maclenzie & Albemarle
Trend Investing v IEA demand forecast for EV metals (IEA)
Trend Investing & the IEA
2021 IEA forecast growth in demand for selected minerals from clean energy technologies by scenario, 2040 relative to 2020 – Increases Of Lithium 13x to 42x, Graphite 8x to 25x, Cobalt 6x to 21x, Nickel 7x to 19x, Manganese 3x to 8x, Rare Earths 3x to 7x, And Copper 2x to 3x
IEA
Rio Tinto forecasts lithium emerging supply gap (October 2021) – 60 new mines the size of Jadar will be needed
Rio Tinto
BMI demand growth 2022-2035 (in mtpa) for critical metals. Number of new mines required by 2035 – 78 new lithium mines needed
BMI
Lithium market and battery news
On August 29, Mining.com reported:
Mali president signs new mining code in bid to raise govt stake…The new code, signed on state television late on Monday, will allow the state and local investors to take stakes as high as 35% in mining projects compared with 20% now, and could more than double the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product to around 20%, the government has said. It was not immediately clear if the code would affect existing projects. A mining ministry official said last week that this would depend on the implementing decrees, which have not yet been made available.
On September 5, Business Korea reported:
Samsung SDI unveils high-performance…lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) battery, which adds manganese to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes…Traditional LFP batteries have the advantages of low manufacturing cost and high safety, but they suffer from low energy density, resulting in shorter driving distances. A manganese-infused LFP battery overcomes these limitations and is garnering attention as a breakthrough technology. It can increase energy density by approximately 15-20% at a similar price. Additionally, the company unveiled a new “side cell” form factor that shifts the positive and negative terminals from the top and bottom of the battery cell to the side. This design allows for the addition of a cooling system on the top and bottom, enhancing thermal safety.
On September 6, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported:
Global cell prices fall below $100/kWh for first time in two years. The global weighted average price for lithium ion cell prices has dropped below $100 per kilowatt-hour for the first time in two years on the back of falling raw material prices. The latest average price from the Benchmark Lithium ion Battery Cell Price Assessment is $98.2/kWh…
On September 7, Drive.com.au reported:
New fast-charging electric-car battery previewed ahead of showroom arrivals next year…A technical representative for CATL at this week’s Munich motor show told Drive the 80kWh battery pack on display could charge from 20 per cent to 80 per cent capacity in 10 minutes on a super-fast charger. “Mass production will start at the end of this year and we will see this battery technology in showrooms and on the road early next year,”…According to the CATL website, this charging capacity can deliver 400km of driving range with a 10 minute charge, as well as a maximum driving range of more than 700km on a single full charge…
On September 8, The Northern Miner reported:
Argentina to reach top three spot among lithium players by 2027. Argentina, the fastest-growing lithium producing nation, is also on track to become the world’s third largest player by 2027 thanks to its three active mines and 38 projects under development, analysts say.
On September 9, Reuters reported:
Tantalex secures Glencore’s backing for Congo lithium project. Tantalex Lithium (TTX.CD), a Canadian junior miner that is aiming to produce lithium from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), said on Friday its tailings project has secured the backing of Glencore (GLEN.L). The Swiss miner and trader will pay a staggered $5 million to Tantalex as part of the marketing off-take agreement and has agreed to finance a third of the capital requirements for the DRC project, if it meets its conditions, Tantalex said in a statement.
On September 13, Fastmarkets reported:
Global electric vehicle supply chains struggle to keep up as demand continues to surge…Despite surging EV sales, the transition has really only just begun. This means that demand should continue to soar on the back of subsidies and future phase-out targets and regulations for internal combustion engine [ICE] vehicles. When total costs of EV ownership are on a par with those of ICE vehicles (and even begin to drop below them) in the second half of the decade, we can expect an extra upswing…Squeezed supply chains and looming shortages of critical metals which are key for battery manufacturing present a major risk for the energy transition as we head towards 2030. Lagging investments in mining may also add another challenge to the mix as we begin to see the supply-demand balance grow increasingly fragile.
On September 21, BMI reported:
Battery capacity to increase 4-fold by 2030 amid qualification challenge outside Asia…Global battery capacity is set to grow to 4 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2030 after surpassing the 1 TWh mark this year, Miller told delegates. In 2015, worldwide capacity was 68 gigawatt hours [GWH] according to Benchmark’s Gigafactory Assessment…The bulk of expansions outside of Asia are coming from Europe and North America. By 2030 Europe’s share of global battery capacity is set to grow to 13.7% from 7.8% last year, while North America’s is set to increase to 14.7% by the end of the decade from 6% in 2022.
Lithium miner news
Albemarle (ALB)
On September 3, Albemarle announced:
Albemarle confirms non-binding agreement to acquire Liontown… Albemarle…confirms that it submitted a best and final non-binding proposal, in the absence of a superior proposal, to acquire all outstanding shares of Liontown by way of scheme of arrangement for A$3.001 cash per share…The Revised Proposal values Liontown at A$6.6 billion or US$4.32 billion on an equity value basis…
On September 12, Albemarle announced:
Albemarle receives $90 million Critical Materials Award from the Department of Defense to boost U.S. lithium production…the U.S. Department of Defense has approved a $90 million grant to help support the expansion of domestic mining and the production of lithium for the nation’s battery supply chain. The funding will be…used to purchase a fleet of mining equipment as part of the company’s planned reopening of its lithium mine in Kings Mountain, North Carolina. The planned Kings Mountain mine contains one of the few known hard rock lithium deposits in the U.S. The site is expected to feed sufficient material for 50 kt LCE of conversion capacity and support the manufacturing initially of approximately 1.2 million electric vehicles annually.
Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (SQM), Wesfarmers [ASX:WES] (OTCPK:WFAFY), Covalent Lithium (SQM/WES JV
On September 6, SQM announced:
SQM’s Salar de Atacama operation becomes the world’s first lithium mining operation to achieve IRMA 75…
Upcoming catalysts:
Q4, 2023 – Mt Holland spodumene production to begin (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).
Q4, 2024 – 50ktpa Lithium hydroxide [LiOH] refinery (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).
Investors can read SQM’s latest presentation here or my article on SQM here.
Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium [SHE:002460] [HK: 1772] (OTCPK:GNENY)
On September 7, Market Screener reported:
Ganfeng Lithium to boost stake in Mali Lithium Mine to 55% with $138 million investment…
Note: More details in JV partner Leo Lithium’s [ASX:LLL] news (from page 3).
Investors can read my article on Ganfeng Lithium here.
(Chengdu) Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. [SHE:002466], Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) is a JV with Tianqi Lithium (51%) and IGO Limited (49%). TLEA owns the Kwinana lithium hydroxide facility in WA
On August 25, Market Screener reported:
Tianqi Lithium Corporation reports earnings results for the half year ended June 30, 2023…For the half year, the company reported sales was CNY 24,823.23 million compared to CNY 14,295.57 million a year ago. Net income was CNY 6,452.46 million compared to CNY 10,327.59 million a year ago. Basic earnings per share from continuing operations was CNY 3.93 compared to CNY 6.99 a year ago. Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations was CNY 3.93 compared to CNY 6.99 a year ago.
On September 21, Tianqi Lithium announced:
First-ever Cooperation with the Terminal Industrial Chain: Tianqi Lithium Corporation signed Share Subscription Agreement with Smart…As per the agreement, Tianqi Lithium will invest $150 million in Smart. This cooperation extends beyond the financial aspect, utilizing the information advantages across the upstream and downstream segments of the new energy industrial chain to fully exploit synergies…
On September 21, Tianqi Lithium announced:
Furthering cooperation in the global lithium business ecosystem | Tianqi Lithium Corporation [TLC] signed a memorandum of understanding with Mercedes-Benz AG…Tianqi Lithium Corporation [TLC] intends to explore new opportunities for collaboration with Mercedes-Benz AG as a way of injecting continuous momentum into the development of new energy industry.
On September 21, Tianqi Lithium announced:
Tianqi Lithium Corporation and Geely Holding signed Strategic Cooperation Agreement to Advance Lithium Battery Material Innovation Research and Development…
IGO Limited’s ownership % for Kwinana & Greenbushes (source)
IGO Limited presentation
Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] (OTCPK:PILBF)
No significant news for the month. The Company did report a A$0.14 dividend.
You can view the latest company presentation here.
Upcoming catalysts:
- Late 2023 – P680 Expansion Project set to begin production.
- Late 2023 – Plan to commission production of POSCO/Pilbara Minerals (18%, option to increase to 30%) JV LiOH facility in Korea.
- Q3, 2025 – P1000 Expansion Project set to begin production.
Mineral Resources [ASX:MIN] (OTCPK:MALRF)
Mineral Resources lithium assets include Mt Marion Mine (50% MIN: 50% Ganfeng). Wodgina Lithium Mine (50% ALB: 50% MIN).
On August 28, Mineral Resources announced: “2023 financial year full year results announcement.” Highlights include:
- “Strong underlying financial results: Revenue up 40 per cent to $4.8 billion. Underlying EBITDA up 71 per cent to $1.8 billion, representing an EBITDA margin of 37 per cent. Fully franked final dividend of $0.70, bringing the FY23 total dividend to $1.90 (FY22: $1.00).
- Lithium: Record earnings delivered, with Wodgina ramp up continuing and maiden lithium battery chemical earnings. Renegotiated MARBL joint venture agreement with Albemarle Corporation. Completed construction of the Mt Marion plant expansion. Significant Mt Marion exploration results confirm opportunity for open pit extensions and underground potential.”
On September 4 AFR reported:
MinRes set to buy WA lithium mine Bald Hill. Chris Ellison’s Mineral Resources is the mystery bidder that has signed an implementation deed to buy West Australian lithium mine Bald Hill out of administration.
Livent Corp. (LTHM) [GR:8LV] (NB: Allkem and Livent plan to merge towards the end of 2023)
No news for the month.
Allkem [ASX:AKE] [TSX:AKE] (OTCPK:OROCF)(NB: Allkem and Livent plan to merge towards the end of 2023)
No significant news for the month.
You can read the latest investor presentation here. You can read my Allkem article here.
AMG Critical Materials N.V. [NA:AMG] [GR:ADG] (OTCPK:AMVMF) (Formerly AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV)
No significant news for the month.
Upcoming catalysts:
- 2023/24 – Stage 2 production at Mibra Lithium-Tantalum mine (additional 40ktpa) forecast to begin, bringing total production capacity to 130ktpa.
- Q4, 2023 – Lithium hydroxide facility in Bitterfeld-Wolfen Germany to be commissioned. First module to be 20,000tpa LiOH.
- 2025-2028 – German LiOH facility expansion plan with Modules 2-5 (100,00tpa LiOH).
You can view the latest company presentation here or my article here.
Sayona Mining [ASX:SYA] (OTCQB:SYAXF)
On September 6, Sayona Mining announced: “First lithium shipment boosts NAL revenues.” Highlights include:
- “First shipment of approximately 20,500 wmt (wet metric tonnes) lithium oxide concentrate generates maiden cash proceeds for NAL (North American Lithium).
- Approximately 30,000 wmt of concentrate inventory at port available for upcoming shipments.
- Loading of first shipment to offtake partner Piedmont Lithium slated for September 2023.
- NAL ramp-up progressing, with substantial progress on new project initiatives.”
Upcoming catalysts include:
- 2023 – Spodumene production ramp up at NAL operations (owned SYA 75%: PLL 25%).
Piedmont Lithium (PLL)[ASX:PLL]
Piedmont Lithium 100% own the Carolina Lithium spodumene project in North Carolina, USA; as well as 25% of the North American Lithium [NAL] Project in Canada and 47% of the Ewoyaa Lithium Project in Ghana.
On August 29, Piedmont Lithium announced: “Piedmont Lithium receives partial prepayment for inaugural shipment under NAL Offtake Agreement.” Highlights include:
- “Partial prepayment of $31.6 million for September shipment of 15,000 dry metric tons of lithium concentrate.
- NAL ramp up progressing well and meeting Piedmont’s production expectations for 2023.
- Piedmont’s 2023 shipments under NAL offtake expected to total 56,500 dry metric tons.”
On September 11, Piedmont Lithium announced: “Ghana Sovereign Wealth Fund to invest in Ewoyaa Project.” Highlights include:
- “The Minerals Income Investment Fund of Ghana to acquire 6% interest in Ewoyaa for $27.9 million.
- The sovereign wealth fund’s investment is a significant endorsement of the Ghanaian hard-rock lithium project.
- Investment and ongoing contributions by MIIF to reduce capex investments equally for Piedmont and Atlantic Lithium.
- MIIF also to subscribe for approximately 3% of Atlantic Lithium’s listed shares for $5 million.
- Mining lease discussions advance with the Minerals Commission of Ghana, with an expected lease approval within 2023.”
Upcoming catalysts include:
- H2 2025 – Ewoyaa Project in Ghana (47% PLL) targeted to begin.
- 2026 – Tennessee Lithium hydroxide project targeted to begin.
- 2023-25 – Carolina Lithium (100%) – Permitting, off-take or project funding announcements.
You can view the company’s latest presentation here, or CEO interview here.
Core Lithium Ltd. [ASX:CXO] [GR:7CX] (OTCPK:CXOXF) (OTC:CORX)
Core 100% owns the Finniss Lithium Project (Grants Resource) in Northern Territory Australia. Significantly they already have an off-take partner with China’s Yahua (large market cap, large lithium producer), who has signed a supply deal with Tesla (TSLA). The Company states they have a “high potential for additional resources from 500km2 covering 100s of pegmatites.”
On August 28, Core Lithium Ltd. announced:
Core Lithium Ltd opens Share Purchase Plan. Core Lithium Ltd (ACN 146 287 809) (Core or the Company) announced on 16 August 2023 that it would be conducting a share purchase plan (SPP) to provide eligible shareholders with the opportunity to acquire up to A$30,000 worth of Core ordinary shares (Shares) without paying any brokerage costs, commission or other transaction costs. The SPP supplements the recent successfully completed A$100 million fully underwritten institutional placement conducted at A$0.40 per Share, as initially announced to the market on 16 August 2023 (Placement)…
On September 6, Core Lithium Ltd. announced: “Development projects update: BP33 and Carlton.” Highlights include:
- “Box cut excavation has commenced at the BP33 project.
- The 2023 infill drilling program to increase confidence in the existing Mineral Resource at Carlton is complete.
- In parallel, updated feasibility studies for BP33 and Carlton progress and remain on schedule.”
On September 8, Core Lithium Ltd. announced:
Shipments sail: first cargo delivered into offtake agreements and first shipment of lithium fines…The inaugural 10,000t spodumene concentrate delivery into Core’s long-term offtake agreements has been loaded onto the Clearwater Bay for delivery to foundation customer Ganfeng Lithium. The product presented well and is within the Ganfeng contract specifications. This shipment follows the two concentrate shipments made in April and July under separate agreements with Sichuan Yahua. In addition, and further to the update provided in the Quarterly Activities Report for the quarter ended 30 June 2023, Core has also successfully negotiated the sale of an initial parcel of fines from its Finniss operations. A 15,000t parcel, with a grade of 1.2% Li2O has also been loaded.
On September 22, Core Lithium Ltd. announced:
Completion of Share Purchase Plan. Australian lithium miner Core Lithium Limited (ASX: CXO) has raised approximately $11.4m through its share purchase plan offer…
Investors can read a company presentation here, or my article when Core Lithium was back at A$0.055 here.
Catalysts include:
- 2023 – Ramp up of spodumene production from Finniss.
Sigma Lithium Resources [TSXV:SGML] (SGMLF) (SGML)
Sigma is developing a world class lithium hard rock deposit with exceptional mineralogy at its Grota do Cirilo Project in Brazil.
On September 1, Sigma Lithium announced:
Sigma lithium reaches second shipment target of 15,000 tonnes of triple zero green lithium at port; closes export revolver credit line with Santander for US$10m; reports second quarter 2023 results….Plans to publish an updated resource estimate, including the areas at Phase 4, in the coming weeks…
Financial Update
- “Successfully closed the first Green ACE Credit Line (Export Prepayment) with Santander Brazil for R$50 million (US$10 million)…
- …for the three-month period ended June 30, 2023, ending the second quarter with C$45.6 million in cash and cash equivalents.
- Received US$31.8 million pre-payment in Q2 2023 for the first shipment of Triple Zero Green Lithium and Green By-Products.
- Expects to begin recognizing revenue from the sale of Triple Zero Green Lithium and Green By-Products in Q3 2023; expects to report positive operating profit for Q3 2023.
- Capital expenditures for Phase 1 construction are in line with Feasibility Study estimates, with $126.7 million disbursed as of June 30, 2023, and $8.1 million remaining, demonstrating Sigma Lithium’s unparalleled ability to successfully complete the construction and commissioning of the Greentech Plant on time and on budget.”
Upcoming catalysts:
- 2023 – Ramp up of spodumene production from Grota do Cirilo.
Investors can read the latest company presentation here or the Trend Investing article here back when Sigma was trading at C$5.00.
Argosy Minerals [ASX:AGY][GR:AM1] (OTCPK:ARYMF)
Argosy has an interest in the Rincon Lithium Mine in Argentina, targeting a fast-track development strategy. Argosy initially plans to ramp to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate starting mid-2023.
On September 4, Argosy Minerals announced: “Rincon Lithium Project update.” Highlights include:
- “2,000tpa operation commissioning and ramp up works progressing;10 tonnes of battery quality lithium carbonate product produced during August Process improvement initiatives identified and being implemented as part of production ramp up.
- Resource expansion exploration diamond drilling works recently completed, results awaited…”
On September 13, Argosy Minerals announced: “Interim financial report for the half-year ended 30 June 2023…”
Upcoming catalysts:
- 2023 – Rincon Lithium full ramp-up toward steady-state production targeted, 2,000tpa operation.
Investors can view the company’s latest investor presentation here.
Lithium Americas [TSX:LAC] (LAC) – Plan to split to form two companies – Lithium Americas and Lithium Argentina (source)
On September 15 Business Insider reported:
The world’s largest deposit of lithium may have been discovered inside a US supervolcano, helping to boost a mining company’s stock price… That’s according to a study conducted by Lithium Americas, which hypothesizes that the McDermitt Caldera contains 20 to 40 million metric tons of lithium. Lithium Americas stock surged more than 7% on Monday after the study was published.
Upcoming catalysts:
- H2 2023 – Cauchari-Olaroz lithium production ramp to 40ktpa. From 2025 a Stage 2 20ktpa+ expansion is planned.
- 2023 – Thacker Pass construction to progress. Waiting on a potential DOE ATVM Loan.
- H2, 2026 – Phase 1 (40,000tpa LCE) lithium clay production from Thacker Pass Nevada (full ramp to 80,000tpa by ?2028).
NB: Ganfeng Lithium (51%) and Lithium Americas (49%) own the JV company Minera Exar S.A., which owns 91.5% interest and is entitled to 100% of the production from the Cauchari-Olaroz Project. The 8.5% interest is owned by Jujuy Energia y Mineria Sociedad del Estado (“JEMSE”) (a company owned by the Government of Jujuy province).
The Cauchari-Olaroz Project (Ganfeng/LAC JV) aerial view – Commissioning and 1st lithium produced in June 2023 (source)
Lithium Americas
Lithium miner ETFs
- Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) – A pure play lithium ETF
- Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT)
- ProShares S&P Global Core Battery Metals ETF (ION)
- The Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (BATT)
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) 10 year price chart (source)
Seeking Alpha
Trend Investing lithium demand v supply model forecasts
Our recently updated model forecast (due to surging EV and stationary energy storage demand) is for lithium demand to increase 4.9x between end 2020 and end 2025 to ~1.76m tpa, and 11.5x this decade to reach ~4.1 m tpa by end 2029 (assumes electric car market share of 28% by end 2025 and 52% by end 2029). These figures may be a bit lower if sodium-ion batteries take significant market share in stationary energy storage or low end vehicles.
Note: A Nov. 2020 UBS forecast is for “lithium demand to lift 11-fold from ~400kt in 2021 through to 2030.”
Conclusion
September saw lithium chemical spot prices and spodumene spot prices down significantly again.
Highlights for the month were:
- Mali president signs new mining code in bid to raise govt stake.
- Samsung SDI unveils high-performance lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) battery.
- BMI: Global battery cell prices fall below $100/kWh for first time in 2 years.
- New CATL 80kWh battery pack (Shenxing) can charge from 20% to 80% in 10 minutes.
- Argentina to reach top three spot among lithium players by 2027.
- Fastmarkets: “Global electric vehicle supply chains struggle to keep up as demand continues to surge. Despite surging EV sales, the transition has really only just begun.”
- BMI: “Battery capacity to increase 4-fold by 2030…to 4TWh.”
- Albemarle raises offer to A$3.00 in takeover offer for Liontown Resources. Albemarle receives $90 million critical materials award from the DoD.
- Ganfeng Lithium to boost stake in Mali Lithium Mine (Goulamina) to 55% with $138 million investment. JV partner Leo Lithium to drop to 45% share.
- Tianqi Lithium signed a MOU with Mercedes-Benz AG. Tianqi signs agreement with Geely to advance lithium battery material innovation R&D.
- Mineral Resources set to buy WA lithium mine Bald Hill out of administration.
- Sayona Mining reports first lithium shipment boosts NAL revenues.
- Ghana Sovereign Wealth Fund to acquire 6% interest in Ewoyaa Project for $27.9 million.
- Sigma Lithium expects to report positive operating profit for Q3 2023. Plans to publish an updated resource estimate in the coming weeks.
- LAC: A study conducted by Lithium Americas, which hypothesizes that the McDermitt Caldera contains 20 to 40 million metric tons of lithium.
As usual, all comments are welcome.
Editor’s Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
