angel_nt A guest post by Ovi Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for oil-producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to September 2023. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World Oil production…
JLGutierrez By William J. Luther The disinflation process has not been as consistent as one may have hoped, new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCEPI), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, grew at a continuously compounding annual rate of 3.4 percent over the…
The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt is optimistic that inflation would ease. UK inflation came in for September at 6.7%, higher than expectations set by analysts. Also, inflation in the UK remained unchanged from August. While inflation remained unaltered, the UK’s headline consumer price index (CPI) met expectations from economists polled by Reuters….
imaginima The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Report, corresponding to activity during the month of September 2023, was published by the U.S. Federal Reserve on October 17, 2023, at 9:15 AM. This report is widely considered to provide some of the best indicators of the production of goods in the U.S. economy, available at a…
CGinspiration After twelve successive months of declining year-on-year exports, Taiwan’s September exports showed a small positive increase year-on-year. A key factor driving the downturn in exports during late 2022 and through much of 2023 has been weak demand for Taiwan’s electronics exports in key global markets. However, recent export data has shown signs of a…
coldsnowstorm By Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation continues to edge towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) 2% target. Annual headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.7%, but core inflation eased from 4.3% to 4.1%, marking its lowest level since September 2021. Despite the lack of surprises in the…
deepblue4you The following data is derived from trading activity on the Tradeweb Markets institutional European- and U.S.-listed ETF platforms. European-Listed ETFs Total traded volume Trading activity on the Tradeweb European ETF marketplace reached EUR 42 billion in September, while the proportion of transactions processed via Tradeweb’s Automated Intelligent Execution (AiEX) tool increased to 83%. Adam…
Data released by the Labor Department show that CPI for September increased higher than expected, with several prices up from August. According to figures published by the Labor Department, the prices of goods and services increased quicker than expected in September. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September and 3.7% compared with the same period…
piola666 Earlier this morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index for the month of September. On a year-over-year basis, inflation came in at 3.7%, while core inflation (which removes food and energy) came in at 4.1% year over year. While core inflation (on a year-over-year basis) is at its lowest level…
andresr/E+ via Getty Images The September CPI report revealed a hotter-than-expected 0.4% rise in monthly consumer prices compared to the +0.3% consensus. The Core rate rose 0.3% last month, matching estimates. The year-on-year headline rate was unchanged at +3.7%, one-tenth to the warm side versus expectations while Core CPI rose 4.1% from a year ago,…
champc Dear Friends & Partners, During the month, the LRT Global Opportunities strategy returned an estimated -9.32%, bringing year-to-date returns to +36.58%, net of fees. Our investment returns are summarized in the table below: Strategy Month YTD 12 Months 24 Months 36 Months Inception LRT Global Opportunities -9.32% +36.58% +44.27% -1.19% +10.98% +21.37% Click to…
Nastassia Samal Hiring picked up sharply in September, reversing signs of a cooling labor market. In September, the economy added 336,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, above the average gain of 267,000 over the previous 12 months. These payroll gains were nearly double consensus expectations of 170,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8% in…
Michael M. Santiago For the month, 23% of all closed-end funds (CEFs) posted net asset value (NAV)-based returns in the black, with just 10% of equity CEFs and 33% of fixed income CEFs chalking up returns in the plus column. The average equity and fixed income CEF posted NAV-based losses of 3.12% and 1.94%, respectively,…
bizoo_n In September, digital assets, especially Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and Ethereum (ETH-USD), performed better than traditional market indices. Large-cap tokens excelled due to decreased on-chain activities, and market hopes tied to ETF approvals. Please note that VanEck may have a position(s) in the digital asset(s) described below. Digital assets outperformed other risk assets in September for…
sturti/E+ via Getty Images Ahead of the nonfarm payroll employment report for September 2023, U.S. Treasury yields increased sharply. The 10-year treasury (IEF) approached 5.0% earlier this week, only to back off. The jobs growth surge in September will likely push Treasury yields to multi-year highs. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000, compared to the 160,000…
Shutter2U Free to move about the cabin After refusing to endorse the summer rally, insiders are buying the fall dip. The S&P 500 concluded the third quarter on a whimper down -4.8% on a total return basis for the month of September. A pullback in equity market valuations and a return to a healthier level…
Until the trial proceeds next September 2024, Mashinsky will remain free on $40 million bail, however, will continue to face travel and financial restrictions. In an October 3rd hearing held in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, Judge John Koeltl set the criminal trial date for former Celsius Network…
MicroStockHub By Muhammet Mercan With monthly inflation at 4.75% (close to our call of 4.7% and the market expectation of 4.9%), annual inflation continued to rise in September, reaching 61.9%. This compares to the government’s full-year estimate of 65% as laid out in its medium-term plan and the central bank’s forecast of 58%, which it…
This article was written by Charles Rotblut, CFA is the editor of the AAII Journal, the flagship publication of The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII). Charles provides both insight about individual investor sentiment and market analysis. He is also the author of “Better Good than Lucky: How Savvy Investors Create Fortune with the Risk-Reward…
pcess609 81 Stocks in RIG/Rose’s Income Garden RIG = Rose’s Income Garden is meant to grow income and continues to do just that. The majority of the 81-stock portfolio is common stock, with some preferred shares and HY financials thrown in for diversity and of course, the income. It also was built with quality in…
benedek/E+ via Getty Images For the first time in several months, I’m seeing some bargains beginning to appear in the market. Of course, I’m more conservative with purchases now that cash is paying 5%. In 2021, it made sense to chase mediocre deals. Missing out on a dividend or, even worse, missing a dividend raise…
peshkov I am raising by ten dollars my September forecast for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price to range between $80 to $100 per barrel. Figure 1: WTI Confidence Intervals To some people, my range might seem too wide. In reality, it is not. For example, on Thursday, September 28, WTI touched $95, which exceeded…
Euro zone inflation has reduced to its lowest point in nearly 2 years after the European Central Bank hiked rates for the 10th time. The euro zone annual inflation level fell to its lowest this month, since October 2021. Annual inflation fell to 4.3%, down from 5.2% in August. Also, core inflation fell from 5.3%…
L_Mirror/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to the September edition of the graphite miners news. September saw continued weak graphite prices and some good news from the graphite producers and juniors. Graphite price news During the past 30 days, the China graphite flake-194 EXW spot price was down 3.23%. The China graphite flake +195 EXW spot…
Each pack contains a narrative-driven, playable character for WAGMI Defense, the inaugural mobile game from WAGMI Games. The community-driven Web3 entertainment franchise WAGMI Games has revealed that its upcoming Founder’s Packs will be launched exclusively on the NFT marketplace OpenSea on September 27th. These Founder’s Packs, comprise 10,000 unopened card packs. It’s developed in collaboration…
Alper Akca Author’s Note This simulation has been done jointly with a U.S. Treasury yield simulation in a way that reflects the correlation among the 12 factors driving yields in each country. For more on the companion U.S. Treasury simulation, please contact the author. Both the Bund and the U.S. Treasury yield simulations impact foreign…
PUGUN SJ The good news is that we are almost out of September, the worst month of the year for equities! The bad news is that we now enter the last week of September, the worst week of the year for equities. Nautilus Optuma So far this year, the S&P 500 has played out pretty…
DNY59 As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded yield…
Photon-Photos/iStock via Getty Images Welcome to the September 2023 edition of the lithium miner news. The past month saw a continued fall in lithium carbonate spot prices in China, now close to the level where they bottomed in late April 2023 (see chart below). Lithium price news Asian Metal reported during the past 30 days,…
cemagraphics The S&P500 made its largest weekly decline since March this week as the contracting pattern broke out. This was fully prepared for in last week’s article which called for “a burst of volatility (FOMC meeting induced?)” and a test of 4335. Next week will be very interesting. The final part of the scenario laid…
Olivier Le Moal In this monthly article, we try to identify five closed-end funds (“CEFs”) that have a solid historical performance, pay high enough distributions, and offer reasonable valuations at the current time. We also present a more diversified list of the top 10 funds. Author’s Note: This article is part of our monthly series…
shotbydave Welcome to the September 2023 cobalt miners news. The past month saw a continued weak cobalt market weighed down by low cobalt prices. It was a very quiet month for news. Cobalt price news As of September 22, the cobalt spot price was at US$14.85/lb, about the same as US$14.84/lb last month. The LME…
Dragon Claws We believe conventional investment strategies are poised to undergo a significant restructuring, placing a prominent emphasis on investments in hard assets. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, the valuation history of 60/40 portfolios unfolds through extended cycles, and we are currently experiencing another critical juncture in this dynamic. In August 2021, the combined…
imaginima The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September 2023 was published recently. The last month reported in most of the OPEC charts that follow is August 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude oil output in thousands of barrels per day (kb/d). In many of the OPEC charts that follow the…
Julia Nikhinson/Getty Images News The U.S. Federal Reserve is due to announce its decision following a two-day monetary policy meeting which ends on September 20. For an event that is usually surrounded by intense anticipation and debate among economists and traders, the upcoming meeting appears to be generating much less attention and discussion than before….
cemagraphics Another inside week traded in the S&P 500 (SPY) as the sideways range continued and contracted. This is frustrating action but can’t continue indefinitely and we should see range expansion this week. The question is, which way will it break? Last week’s article highlighted the bias for a break lower past 4430. Obviously, this…
This article was written by I am the curator of the Dividend Champions list, a monthly publication of companies with a history of consistently increasing their dividends. My primary investing focus is in deep value and dividend paying stocks, but I am constantly exploring alternative strategies. I have a Ph.D in Chemistry from Rice University…
AzmanJaka This monthly article series shows a dashboard with aggregate industry metrics in healthcare. It is also a review of healthcare ETFs whose largest holdings have been used to calculate these metrics, like the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) and iShares Global Healthcare ETF (NYSEARCA:IXJ). Shortcut The next two paragraphs in italic describe…
Torsten Asmus The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to trend higher in August, rising further above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. It’s unclear if the mean estimate is wrong or the market’s experiencing an extended run of irrational exuberance. Perhaps it’s a bit of both. In any case, the…
urfinguss/iStock via Getty Images This monthly article series shows a dashboard with aggregate industry metrics in materials. It is also a review of sector exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, like Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) and Vanguard Materials Index Fund ETF Shares (NYSEARCA:VAW), whose largest holdings are used to calculate these metrics. Shortcut The next…
ThomasVogel Foreword This article is based on five UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s articles, aimed at finding “Inflation Busting”, stocks since 2022. The author believes these stock suggestions are prescient into the year 2024 as banks, lenders, and crypto exchanges succumb to rising fed interest rates. The title and links to the articles follow: 24 Pricing…
Scott Olson As explained in Prof. Robert Jarrow’s book cited below, forward rates contain a risk premium above and beyond the market’s expectations for the 3-month forward rate. We document the size of that risk premium in this graph, which shows the zero-coupon yield curve implied by current Treasury prices compared with the annualized compounded…
DieterMeyrl/E+ via Getty Images Introduction More changes are coming to my Weekly Breakout Forecast reporting on the doctoral research analysis of MDA breakout stock selections over more than 8 years. This high frequency breakout portfolio subset I regularly release has now reached 327 weeks of public selections on Seeking Alpha as part of this ongoing…
cemagraphics Last week’s article called for the S&P500 (SPY) rally to fade and drop to around 4415 which nearly played out with this week’s decline to 4430. However, Thursday’s low does not necessarily mark the bottom of this move. The title of this week’s article, ‘It’s not over,’ refers both to the probability of further…
Florent Molinier September has seasonally been a volatile month for stocks. Subsequently, the months of October, November, and December are more conducive for the bulls. That said, we are not seeing a rush into defensive sectors at the moment, such as utilities and low-volatility stocks. In addition, there is no widening of credit spreads presently,…
The decision by Genesis Global Trading (GGT) to wind down its business was reportedly voluntary and is currently working with regulators to ensure an orderly closure of services. Genesis Global Trading (GGT), a subsidiary of Barry Silbert’s Digital Currency Group that owns Grayscale Investments, has written a letter to its clients that it will be…
primeimages The expected return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up in August from the previous month. Today’s revised long-run forecast for this benchmark — a market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash) via a set of ETF proxies — edged up to an annualized 6.6% return, the highest so…
Christine McCann Foreword While two-thirds of this collection of Dow Industrials is too pricey and reveals only skinny dividends, two of the five lowest-priced Dogs of the Dow are ready to buy. This month, Verizon Communications (VZ) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) live up to the dogcatcher ideal of annual dividends from $1K invested exceeding…
cemagraphics Two weeks have passed since my last article, and the key level of 4325 highlighted back then should have kept readers on the right side of the S&P 500’s (SP500) recent rally. Given the recovery and the strong end to August, the focus is now on whether we can look for direct new highs…
Thapana Onphalai Market Recap After two solid months of strong returns from equity markets we entered another wave of volatility in August. The SPDR S&P Trust ETF (SPY) fell by 1.63% last month but remains up 18.65% year-to-date. Vanguard’s High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) posted a larger loss of 2.39%, pushing its year-to-date return down…